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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF THE BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX


EUR/USD



Forex News: The fundamental scene was calm yesterday as no major news came out and price had mixed behavior, reversing a drop which occurred early in the day.

[Image: 2015.01.13-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-t...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, without clear direction although the bears made an attempt to retake control. From a short term perspective the picture is mixed and the bias neutral, with the first levels of importance being 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1750 as support. The Stochastic entered oversold territory but the Relative Strength Index doesn’t confirm it so we will not allocate a lot of importance to this bullish signal.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a lackluster fundamental day, but a noteworthy event is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the number of jobs openings, excluding the farming industry but this is a lagging indicator because it is released about 40 days after the month for which it is calculated has ended. Nonetheless, better numbers than today’s expected 4.91M can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Trading was mixed yesterday as the Pound weakened during the first part of the day but most of the losses were erased in the second part, after a bounce at 1.5100 support.

[Image: 2015.01.13-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-t...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Short term price action created minor resistance at 1.5190 and we expect another encounter with this level considering the fact that yesterday the pair bounced immediately after a bounce at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and price is moving close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the short term control doesn’t belong to either side but a clear downtrend is in place and a touch of 1.5190 might generate bearish action.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation, will be released today at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.7% while the previous was 1.0% and such a drop will most likely trigger Pound weakness.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES TO INFLUENCE THE GREENBACK AS SUPPORT STILL HOLDS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair continued its descent yesterday on the back of a weaker Euro and short term support was touched again. Concern that the ECB will add more stimulus contributed to the pair’s bearish movement.

[Image: 2015.01.14-U.S.-Retail-Sales-to-influenc...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price bounced higher as soon as 1.1750 support was touched, showing that bears are having difficulties breaking this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are close to their respective oversold levels and are starting to move up; this, coupled with the bullish bounce seen at 1.1750 increases the chance of a move north which could find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Retail Sales are the day’s main event and is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 0.2% from the previous 0.7%, a fact which would be detrimental or the US Dollar because a major part of overall economic activity is represented by sales made at a retail level. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the indicator which is released at the same time but excludes automobiles from calculation.


GBP/USD

The pair had another day characterized by a sharp reversal yesterday as we saw price drop about 100 pips and then climb the same distance. British inflation dropped more than expected and this was the main reason for the initial move south.

[Image: 2015.01.14-U.S.-Retail-Sales-to-influenc...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.5190 resistance, price dropped below 1.5100 but the break soon proved to be false and a bullish bounce took price back up, close to 1.5190. This is a sign that price action is ruled by indecision and the next direction is not clear until a breakout occurs. Even this break of support or resistance happens today, a safer entry would be after a successful retest of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify today before the Treasury Select Committee; the topic is the Financial Stability Report and the testimony could bring some irregular and possibly strong movement so caution is recommended. The scheduled time is 2:15 pm GMT.
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FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM RESISTANCE THREATENED. BOUNCE OR BREAK?


EUR/USD



Forex News: The U.S. Dollar took a hit yesterday as the American Retail Sales posted a much worse than expected change of -0.9%, indicating an economic slowdown. The bulls took control of the pair after a failed attempt to break 1.1750 support.

[Image: 2015.01.15-Short-term-resistance-threate...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The downtrend remains intact as long as 1.1875 is resistance but it looks like the bullish pullback might continue until the mentioned level is touched. The failed break of 1.1750 shows that the downtrend was overextended and needed a “breather” in the form of a retracement higher. If the bulls cannot maintain price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average we will most likely see another attempt to break 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Producer Price Index is released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.3% while last month’s value was -0.2%. Higher numbers are usually beneficial for the greenback because the PPI has inflationary implications (a higher price charged by producers will be paid by the consumer eventually).

At 3:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released, offering information about the state of the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia district. Higher values than the expected 20.3 are considered bullish for the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 4:15 pm GMT, Bundesbank President Weidmann will deliver a speech in Berlin and this could be a volatility trigger if the he will talk about the Euro crisis.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened against the Pound as well and as a result the pair moved above resistance. Mark Carney’s testimony was almost unnoticed by market participants.

[Image: 2015.01.15-Short-term-resistance-threate...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After several attempts, the pair finally broke 1.5190 resistance and continued upwards until 1.5260 was touched. Today we expect a break of either one of the mentioned levels but notice that once 1.5260 was touched, price immediately bounced lower, a fact which shows that the bears still have a lot of underlying power and that we might see a move below 1.5190.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases so price action will be influenced by the U.S. events and by technical factors.
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FOREX NEWS: SWISS NATIONAL BANK’S SHOCKING DECISION, LIKELY TO INFLUENCE PRICE ACTION FURTHER


EUR/USD


Forex News: The Swiss National Bank made a shocking decision yesterday to remove the cap which kept the EUR/CHF pair at a 1.20 rate. The effect on CHF pairs was tremendous, each moving several thousand pips but the Euro was affected as well and the EUR/USD pair dropped for more than 200 pips when the news came out.


[Image: 2015.01.16-Swiss-National-Banks-shocking...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The drop took the pair to a low of 1.1569 before the entire distance was traveled back up where the move originated. At the moment price is trading close to 1.1640 support. The environment is choppy and the market is dangerous but if the bears can maintain price below 1.1640, the next destination is the low we mentioned earlier. Further downside movement is possible as the effects of SNB’s decision will most likely be seen today as well.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. There’s no change expected from the previous -0.3% but higher values are considered beneficial for the US Dollar under normal circumstances. The last important event of the week is the release of the US Consumer Sentiment survey scheduled at 2:55 pm GMT. A small increase to 94.2 from the previous 93.6 is expected, a fact which would strengthen the greenback because consumer sentiment is correlated with consumer spending which is an important part of the economy.


GBP/USD

The SNB decision didn’t affect the GBP/USD as much but some impact was seen and the pair briefly dropped below support before heading higher, into resistance.


[Image: 2015.01.16-Swiss-National-Banks-shocking...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5260 was touched again yesterday but the pair didn’t break it and instead it headed lower. Now price is moving below 1.5190 and might be headed towards 1.5100 considering that resistance held and that a downtrend is still in place. The bias remains bearish as long as price remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major data releases scheduled for the day ahead so we expect price action to be driven by the technical side, unless surprises occur.
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action was pretty slow yesterday, with a bullish bias for most of the day. However, resistance couldn’t be broken and no major economic or financial indicators were released.

[Image: 2015.01.20-Bullish-pressure-mounts-resis...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Overall the picture remains bearish and we expect further moves down once the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought. The resistance at 1.1640 is the first place where trend resumption can occur but a bullish break followed by a successful re-test of this level would invalidate this scenario and would make 1.1750 the first target. To the downside, 1.1460 remains the first support.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey will be today’s biggest release. It is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to change to 40.1 from the previous 34.9. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors and tries to gauge their optimism regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the single currency.

GBP/USD
The Pound-Dollar traded in a tight range for the most part of yesterday’s session and neither support nor resistance was threatened. Price remained close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: 2015.01.20-Bullish-pressure-mounts-resis...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues about future direction and the same is true for the Relative Strength Index which is hovering in the middle of the 30-70 range. The next short term direction will be probably determined by the break of either 1.5190 resistance or 1.5100 support; a conservative entry would be after a re-test and a bounce off of the recently broken level.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule notable economic data releases today, thus price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.




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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT SHATTERED AS THE ECB REVEALS QE VALUE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The ECB announced that combined asset purchases will total a 60 billion EUR/month until at least September 2016. The event created mixed market reaction at first but soon after the pair started to drop and support was tested.

[Image: 2015.01.23-Support-shattered-as-the-ECB-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.1460 was breached during yesterday’s drop and Euro weakness will probably generate further downside movement after a re-test of the mentioned level. The Relative Strength Index moved below 30, indicating that a retracement is due; however, an oversold condition of the RSI doesn’t mean that price will retrace with certainty. For now the picture remains bearish and the pair seems headed towards new lows.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:00 am GMT, followed half an hour later by the German indicator with the same name. French PMI is expected to show a value of 48.1, while the forecast for the German indicator is 51.8; these indicators are gauges of economic health, focused on the Manufacturing sector and better than anticipated values could strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had mixed movement yesterday as the effect of the ECB decision extended to this pair as well. Resistance was touched before the bears finally took control of the pair and broke support.

[Image: 2015.01.23-Support-shattered-as-the-ECB-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

In the recent past the pair moved several times below 1.5100 but returned above it almost immediately so a re-test would be in order before this break can be considered a valid one. The pair’s next target is 1.5035, followed by 1.5000 and the bias is bearish but bullish moves are not out of the question, depending on the economic data released today by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released at 9:30 am GMT and are expected to change -0.6% while last month’s value was 1.6%. Such a drop would suggest that the economy is starting to slow down and the Pound will be negatively affected.
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FOREX NEWS: NEW DOWNSIDE TARGETS AS THE DOWNTREND IS IN FULL SWING


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the pair continued to drop sharply as the effect of the ECB stimulus decision remained in full swing. New multi year lows were reached and the bears made significant advances.

[Image: 2015.01.26-New-downside-targets-as-the-d...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price action seen during the last day of the week created minor resistance at 1.1290; the new low at 1.1114 will most likely act as minor support. The bias is bearish without a doubt and we expect another encounter with 1.1114 but this doesn’t exclude another test of minor resistance, considering the fact that the pair traveled down more than 500 pips in just two days and the move might need a stronger bullish pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey is released, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about current economic conditions in Germany as well as a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 106.7 and higher numbers can strengthen the Euro, driving the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The Pound posted losses against the US Dollar during the first part of Friday but these were erased later in the day. However, the pair couldn’t return above resistance and bounced lower again.

[Image: 2015.01.26-New-downside-targets-as-the-d...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.5035 resistance shows that further downside movement can be expected and that we will probably see another encounter with Friday’s low located at 1.4950. A strong move above 1.5035 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would suggest that the downtrend is weakened and might push price into the resistance located at 1.5100.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bankers’ Association will reveal the number of new mortgages approved for house purchases. A higher figure suggests increased activity in the house market sector and can have a positive impact on the Pound. The event is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the expected figure is 36.6K.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND BRITISH GDP TO DECIDE THE DAY’S BIAS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The German IFO Business Climate survey posted a figure that met analysts’ expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed by market participants. Most of yesterday was controlled by the bulls as price retraced higher.

[Image: 2015.01.27-U.S.-Consumer-Confidence-and-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at support and continued upwards until short term resistance at 1.1290 was touched. The bias remains negative overall as a clear downtrend is still in place. The level at 1.1290, together with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will create a confluence zone which will be tough to break to the upside so this can be a good place where downside movement can resume. The overbought condition of the Stochastic also increases the chances of bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Durable Gods Orders come out at 1:30 pm GMT, with an expected change of 0.6%, while last month this indicator posted a value of -0.9%. Values that exceed expectations are usually beneficial for the US Dollar. The second important event of the day is the release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding current and future economic situation and usually acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending. The expected figure is 95.7, an increase from last month’s 92.6.


GBP/USD

The Pound gained against the greenback yesterday as a Bank of England official said that an interest rate hike might come sooner than investors anticipate.

[Image: 2015.01.27-U.S.-Consumer-Confidence-and-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above 1.5035 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, making the short term bias bullish. The resistance at 1.5100 is the next place where sellers might step in and drive price lower and if this level coincides with an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, the chances of bearish movement will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the BBA Mortgage Approvals was rescheduled for today at 9:30 am GMT (initially scheduled yesterday at the same time). The expected figure is 36.6K and numbers above that could add more steam to the Pound. However, the event might be overshadowed by the release of the Prelim Gross Domestic Product scheduled at the same time and expected to show a value of 0.6% compared with last month’s 0.7%. Since this is the main gauge of an economy’s overall performance, lower numbers can weaken the Pound, driving the pair lower.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. DOLLAR WEAKENED AHEAD OF THE FED MEETINGS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair climbed yesterday as the US Dollar weakened partially due to the worse than expected value of the Durable Goods Orders. Minor resistance was broken, making the short term bias bullish.

[Image: 2015.01.28-U.S.-Dollar-weakened-ahead-of...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After moving above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and re-testing it from above, price headed towards 1.1460 resistance . If this level will be reached, we expect some bearish price action to take place, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will show overbought conditions. If a bounce occurs, the 50 period EMA will offer support and a break of this line would bring price back into 1.1290.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the U.S. Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Rate Statement that accompanies it. The scheduled time is 7:00 pm GMT and although the rate is not expected to change (<0.25%), strong volatility will most likely be present, depending on the contents of the Statement, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The Pound registered another strong bullish day against the greenback, although the British GDP somewhat disappointed. Resistance was broken after a brief bounce and the bulls dominate short term price action.

[Image: 2015.01.28-U.S.-Dollar-weakened-ahead-of...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price broke 1.5100 decisively and moved above 1.5200 resistance but for the time being the level cannot be considered broken. The Relative Strength Index has reached overbought territory and this makes us believe that the break of resistance experienced yesterday will not generate additional bullish movement or at least not before a move down occurs, which will clear the mentioned overbought condition. Support will be provided by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and by the bullish trend line seen on the picture.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today so we expect price action to be driven by the US events mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION IN THE SPOTLIGHT, TECHNICAL SIDE SECONDARY


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair had a slow day ahead of the FOMC Statement release and surprisingly, price action remained that way once the document came out. Volatility was just briefly present as the Fed kept the rate unchanged and announced they will use patience before modifying it.

[Image: 2015.01.29-German-inflation-in-the-spotl...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved sideways for the most part of yesterday and neither support nor resistance was broken, but the pair is still in a downtrend so we favor bearish movement today. The first barrier is located at 1.1290 but if this support will hold, we anticipate a move into 1.1460 resistance. A lot will depend on the German inflation indicator released today and we consider this will decide price direction for the rest of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Germany’s Consumer Price Index is released today at 1:00 pm GMT and expected decrease -0.8% while last month’s value was 0.0%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and such a drop would weaken the Euro since Germany’s economy is of crucial importance for the entire Euro Zone and the ECB is struggling to bring inflation levels higher.


GBP/USD

Price traveled once again above 1.5200 but failed to move away before the Fed event. Once the Statement was released not much has happened and resistance couldn’t be broken.

[Image: 2015.01.29-German-inflation-in-the-spotl...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The failed attempt to break 1.5200 resistance makes us believe that moves lower will follow. If this is true, the first support will be offered by the bullish trend line combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index is moving downwards and this increases the chances of bearish price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic or financial releases and price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors.
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