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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY HOLDS CENTER STAGE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday, after bouncing higher off of 1.2165 support, the pair headed higher and touched short term resistance but price remained confined inside the horizontal channel for the entire day.

[Image: 2014.12.30-US-Consumer-Confidence-survey...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Under normal market conditions we would expect a move outside the horizontal channel created by 1.2220 resistance and 1.2165 support but given the fact that volume is low and price action irregular, we consider that any breakouts will turn out to be false. In other words, after a move outside the channel, price is likely to return inside it, but keep in mind that technical analysis is less efficient during this period.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the American Consumer Confidence survey scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The expected figure is 94.6, an increase from last month’s 88.7 and usually such a climb would strengthen the US Dollar because increased consumer confidence often means that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD

The Pound came close to 1.5590 resistance yesterday before starting to drop. Currently the pair is trading below 1.5540 and the bears have won the short term battle.

[Image: 2014.12.30-US-Consumer-Confidence-survey...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although price moved below the short term support at 1.5540, we might easily see a return above it, or at least a re-test if price is indeed headed south. If the re-test results in a bounce lower, the first support is located at 1.5485 but keep an eye out for any oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index as this could generate a move higher. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer dynamic resistance if touched from below.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no important economic or financial indicators released by the United Kingdom, so price action will be decided by the technical aspect and by the US Consumer Confidence survey.
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FOREX NEWS: TRADING SLOWS DOWN FOR NEW YEAR’S EVE


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was rather slow, a fact determined by the approaching of the New Year’s Eve and by US consumer confidence data which posted a reading close to analysts’ expectations.

[Image: 2014.12.31-Trading-slows-down-for-New-Ye...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Today is the last day of the year and trading will be heavily influenced by this fact. We expect sudden drops and surges in volatility, with potentially sharp whipsaws on the back of low volume. The levels to watch are 1.2220 as resistance and 1.2125 as potential support. Price behavior around the current level of 1.2165 will most likely determine the next short term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

German Banks will be closed today, celebrating the New Year’s Eve and the US Dollar will be somewhat affected by the release of the Unemployment Claims scheduled at 1.30 pm GMT and expected to rise to 287K from the previous 280K. A higher value is detrimental for the US Dollar under normal conditions.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s price action was mainly controlled by the bulls and the pair managed to climb back above 1.5540. Overall it was a normal trading session, without major developments.

[Image: 2014.12.31-Trading-slows-down-for-New-Ye...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is trading above 1.5540 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, meaning that the short term bias is bullish. However, we believe that an overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index will probably generate another bearish move, with 1.5540 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British fundamental scene lacks major releases and we expect irregular price movement, mostly due to the New Year’s Eve.

We hope your year was profitable and we look forward to trading together during 2015. Have a Happy New Year!
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FOREX NEWS: HAPPY NEW YEAR!


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the fundamental scene was rather calm and the US Unemployment Claims release didn’t generate a lot of volatility. For almost the entire day price remained in a tight range, with a bearish bias.

[Image: image001-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2125 was breached yesterday and it looks like the pair is headed for 1.2040 if the bears can maintain their control. Today the market is closed, celebrating the first day of the New Year and price movement will be suspended.

Fundamental Outlook

Most banks around the world are closed today and no economic indicators will be released.


GBP/USD

The pair tested 1.5590 resistance yesterday but the break couldn’t be sustained and the bears quickly brought price below the mentioned level.

[Image: image003-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

For the time being the pair shows rejection around 1.5590 but today no movement will be seen as the world celebrates the New Year. Once the market re-opens, we expect further downside advances.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned before, banks will be closed and no financial or economic indicators will be released today. Happy New Year!
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FOREX NEWS: TRADING RESUMES. LOW VOLUME IS STILL PRESENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the market was closed as the world celebrated the first day of the New Year so price didn’t show any movement. Today the market resumes normal movement but low volume is likely to still be present.

[Image: image0011-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.2125 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but the relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold condition. This makes us believe that today we will see bullish movement but keep in mind that volume is still not back to normal so we might see irregular price action.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI is released, with an expected value of 57.6, a small decrease from the previous 58.7. An even smaller value would probably weaken the US Dollar but the market might overlook this release considering it’s the first trading day of the New Year.


GBP/USD

No movement was seen yesterday and price remained confined between 1.5590 resistance and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

[Image: image0031-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

If price will have trouble breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we will probably see a move above the resistance at 1.5590 but a break of the mentioned EMA will most likely take the pair below 1.5540 support. Our bias is neutral and we consider that an extreme condition of the Relative Strength Index (above 70 or below 30) will generate a reversal move.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom will release the Manufacturing PMI at 9:30 am GMT. The forecast is 53.7, a small increase from last month’s 53.5 and higher values are usually beneficial for the Pound as this indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers and acts as a leading signal of economic health.
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FOREX NEWS: OVEREXTENDED PRICES CALL FOR A BULLISH PULLBACK


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the US Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its peers on speculation that the Fed might raise interest rates during the first part of 2015. The entire day was controlled by the bears and the pair moved below support.

[Image: image0013-1024x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Although price action is bearish and 1.2040 support was broken, we expect the pair to move on a bullish path today. This is based on the fact that the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for a long period and price is overextended to the south. However, keep in mind that we are in a strong downtrend and the pair is under pressure, so it is likely to see further advances south after a bullish pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released and expected to rise to 0.1% from the previous 0.0%. The indicator shows the change in the price of goods and services and acts as the main gauge of inflation; usually numbers that exceed expectations are beneficial for the currency.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened tremendously Friday as the British economy is showing signs of slowing down and the United States move closer to a potential interest rate hike.

[Image: image0033-1024x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The huge drop seen Friday is likely to generate a pullback to the upside. The extreme oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index adds to this prediction but the strength of the bears is undeniable so we expect price to continue to move south after this retracement is complete. Potential resistance is located at 1.5420 while support sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator gauges optimism among purchasing managers form the construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Higher numbers than the anticipated 59.2 will most likely strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.
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FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET REMAINS OVERSOLD. RETRACEMENTS STILL EXPECTED


EUR/USD



Forex News: The market opened with a big gap and the Euro took a big hit yesterday as concern about a potential Greek separation from the European Union escalated. Speculation about ECB purchasing bonds on a large scale added to the bearish momentum.

[Image: 2015.01.06-The-market-remains-oversold.-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The sudden drop seen at market open yesterday was stopped by the support at 1.1875. We expect this level to be tested again today but bullish retracements are still a distinct possibility so we might see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart. On a four hour chart both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11,6,6) are moving upwards, coming from oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is released today at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected change to 58.2 from the previous 59.3. This survey is based on the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing industry and tries to gauge their optimism regarding business and economic conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of economic health and that’s why numbers that exceed expectations are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a huge drop which took price below 1.5260 support; the weekly gap was closed by a quick bullish move but then price dropped again on the back of a worse than expected value of the British Construction PMI.

[Image: 2015.01.06-The-market-remains-oversold.-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index is struggling to move out of oversold territory but the Pound is weakening. If price doesn’t move above 1.5260 soon, we expect further downside movement but otherwise, the first target is represented by 1.5320 short term resistance. This level and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably create a confluence zone which will be hard to break if price touches it.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is announced; the forecast is 58.9, a small increase from last month’s 58.6. The indicator tries to measure optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: US EMPLOYMENT DATA AND FOMC MEETING MINUTES IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair continued to move south after a small retracement higher. Overall price action was controlled by the bears but immediate support couldn’t be broken.

[Image: 2015.01.07-US-Employment-data-and-FOMC-M...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price came in close vicinity of 1.1875 support and showed rejection at this level. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic reached oversold territory and these facts make us believe that a move higher is in order. The first barrier is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if this resistance can be broken, the next target is 1.2040. The pair is still in a downtrend so moves south cannot be ruled out.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the European Consumer Price Index is announced and expected to change 0.0% while last month’s value was 0.3%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value is usually beneficial for the Euro because current inflation levels are considered too low by the ECB.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 1:15 pm GMT and shows the change in the number of new jobs created during the previous month. However, today’s version is released by a privately owned company, not by the US Government so the impact is usually lower. The expected number is 227K, an increase from last month’s 208K and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, offering details about the latest Fed Meeting.


GBP/USD

Resistance couldn’t be broken yesterday and the pair dropped on the back of Pound weakness generated by a worse than anticipated value of the Services PMI.

[Image: 2015.01.07-US-Employment-data-and-FOMC-M...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to take price above 1.5260 resistance and the rest of the day belonged to the bears. Price action created minor support around 1.5165 and a break of this level would probably take the pair into the next support, located at 1.5100. The Relative Strength Index moving upwards, coming from below 30 and this favors bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases today so price direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: MULTI-YEAR LOWS REACHED AS THE DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS RUN


EUR/USD



Forex News; Yesterday we’ve seen that European inflation is still dropping and as a result the downtrend extended further. The US employment report posted better than anticipated numbers and this added to the bears’ strength.

[Image: 2015.01.08-Multi-year-lows-reached-as-th...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes created mixed reaction as the Fed mentioned that a rate hike is unlikely before April but overall price action was bearish for most of the day, moving below 1.1875. If a bullish retracement will occur, the mentioned level will probably turn into resistance and the chances of further bearish movement will be increased near this level. Immediate support sits at 1.1800.

Fundamental Outlook

European Retail Sales are released today at 10:00 am GMT with an expected change of 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Sales made at a retail level are crucial for an economy because consumer spending represents an important part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers will generate some Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The pair broke the important support at 1.5100 and continued to move lower for most of the day. The US Dollar had mixed behavior at the time of the Meeting Minutes release.

[Image: 2015.01.08-Multi-year-lows-reached-as-th...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After moving below 1.5100, the pair retraced to test the recently broken level. Now price action around this potential resistance will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will open the door for further downside action, while a move above it will probably take the pair into the immediate resistance created by the hourly 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The next psychological and technical support sits at 1.5000.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce the interest rate today at 12:00 pm GMT but no change is expected from the current 0.50% so, unless a huge surprise happens, the event will not create a lot of volatility.
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FOREX NEWS: U.S. NON FARM PAYROLLS – ENDING THE WEEK WITH STRONG MOVEMENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the bears remained in control of the pair but some upside pressure was seen at the time of the European Retail Sales release which posted better than expected numbers.

[Image: 2015.01.09-U.S.-Non-Farm-Payrolls-ending...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic remain in the lower part of their respective windows, near oversold levels but the pair continues to slide lower. The minor support at 1.1800 was broken yesterday and now it is being tested from below; if price returns above it, the first resistance is offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that today the technical side will be secondary to the fundamental one.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the U.S. Non Farm Employment report which is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and it’s considered the most important jobs related data. If more jobs are created, the economy is thriving and consumer spending will probably increase in the near future so better numbers than the expected 241K will most likely strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.50% and the announcement didn’t create a lot of volatility. The pair made another push for 1.5000 support but failed to touch it.

[Image: 2015.01.09-U.S.-Non-Farm-Payrolls-ending...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The picture remains bearish, with the first resistance located at 1.5100 and support at 1.5000. Yesterday’s price action created minor support at 1.5035 and this will be the first target if 1.5100 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average cannot be broken. The day’s price action will be heavily influenced by the fundamental scene.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Non Farm Payrolls will be the day’s headline but apart from that an important role will be played by the release of the British Manufacturing Production scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to increase 0.4% from the previous -0.7%. Such an increase would be beneficial for the Pound and would take the pair higher.
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FOREX NEWS: A QUIET FUNDAMENTAL SCENE INFLUENCES PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The US Non Farm Payrolls posted a better than expected number but still lower than last’s month value, a fact which created mixed movement Friday at the time of the release.

[Image: 2015.01.12-A-quiet-fundamental-scene-inf...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The first reaction to the US jobs report was a drop which was soon reversed and the pair started to move upwards. The immediate target is represented by 1.1875; this could be a place where the bears will take back control of the pair, especially if the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic will be coming out of overbought territory. To the downside, the first potential support is located at 1.1750.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, a fact which makes us believe that we will see slow, ranging movement.


GBP/USD

Overall Friday was a bullish day, with irregular movement present at the time of the American Non Farm Employment Change report. The pair remained above 1.5100 for the entire day.

[Image: 2015.01.12-A-quiet-fundamental-scene-inf...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above horizontal resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart, completing a much needed bullish retracement. A downtrend is still in place and this increases the chances of bearish movement with the first target being located at 1.5100, followed by 1.5035. To the upside, the first resistance sits at 1.5260.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule economic releases today, so price action will be driven by the technical aspect but we don’t expect any substantial developments.
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