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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: SLOW MONDAY AHEAD, WITH US DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE


EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the Euro gained against the US Dollar as the US Producer Price Index disappointed analysts’ expectations, weakening the greenback. Later in the day, a better than expected value of a Consumer Confidence survey brought the pair slightly lower and triggered mild US Dollar strength.

[Image: 2014.12.15-Slow-Monday-ahead-with-US-Dol...24x479.png]



Technical Outlook

The pair is likely to continue on its current course until 1.2500 resistance is touched but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought and this might trigger bearish movement. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer support if touched but we don’t expect strong moves today as the economic scene lacks major releases and Mondays are usually slow days.



Fundamental Outlook
At 2:15 pm GMT the US Industrial Production is released but this is considered an event with medium impact on the US Dollar unless surprising numbers are posted. The forecast is 0.8% while the previous was -0.1% and higher than expected values are usually beneficial for the greenback.



GBP/USD

The pair moved mostly sideways for the entire Friday trading session, no substantial advances were made by either bulls or bears and price remained confined between support and resistance.

[Image: 2014.12.15-Slow-Monday-ahead-with-US-Dol...24x479.png]



Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5750 was barely touched Friday but the lack of strong momentum brought price back down, without volatility. We expect this slow, ranging movement to continue today and price to remain between 1.5750 and the four hour 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of either one would open the door for a move towards 1.5825 resistance or 1.5590 support but we don’t expect these levels to be touched today.



Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks important releases for the Pound and the US event mentioned earlier is the only economic indicator that could generate strong movement.
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FOREX NEWS: HEADS-UP FOR THE BOE BANK STRESS TESTS RESULTS AND EUROPEAN PMIS


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day yesterday, with the US Dollar gaining against the Euro; however the move wasn’t substantial and support was not threatened.


[Image: 2014.12.16-Heads-up-for-the-BOE-Bank-Str...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bears weren’t able to continue the move and no significant advances were made. This type of movement is likely to continue today unless surprising numbers are showed by the European economic indicators. Resistance still sits at 1.2500 and support at 1.2360 and we believe resistance might be touched before the bears will make a run for support.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Manufacturing PMI is released at 8:00 am GMT with an anticipated value of 48.7. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the manufacturing sector, higher numbers will have a positive impact on the Euro. Half an hour later, at 8:30 am GMT the German indicator with the same name will be released. The forecast is 50.4 and the release usually has a higher impact than the French Manufacturing PMI.

At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out with an anticipated increase to 19.8 from the previous 11.5. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 275 German investors and analysts and tries to gauge their optimism regarding economic outlook, thus better numbers usually strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened severely versus the US Dollar yesterday and the pair dropped after another close encounter with 1.5750 resistance.

[Image: 2014.12.16-Heads-up-for-the-BOE-Bank-Str...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The momentum clearly belongs to the bears as shown by yesterday’s price action and strictly from a technical point of view, we expect the downside to prevail today. First support is located at 1.5590, a level which proved very strong in the past and might reject price higher again if it will be touched, but a break will most likely draw in more sellers; however, the technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamental today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will make public at 7:00 am GMT the Bank Stress Test results; major UK banks are tested through simulated market conditions to see how they would hold up during a crisis. The market might have a mixed reaction to this stress test so we recommend caution. The Financial Stability Report will be released by the BoE at the same time (7:00 am GMT) and Governor Mark Carney will hold a Press Conference about the report at 9:00 am GMT. At 9:30 the British Consumer Price Index is released and expected to change 1.2% compared with the previous 1.3%, a thing which would further weaken the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: HUGE DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR WITH THE FED MEETINGS IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday both the German Manufacturing PMI and German ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys showed values which exceeded analysts’ expectations and the single currency strengthened as a result, breaking resistance.

[Image: 2014.12.17-Huge-day-for-the-US-Dollar-wi...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

On an hourly chart the pair has become overbought as signaled by the Relative Strength Index and this suggests that price might move below the level of 1.2500, for a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the current test of recently broken resistance turns into a bounce higher, the first target is located at 1.2575.

Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day for the greenback: the first event is the release of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1% while last month we saw a change of 0.0%. Usually an increase in inflation is viewed as beneficial for the US Dollar and could take the pair lower.

In the evening we have a cluster of events which will most likely have a tremendous impact on the greenback: at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current <0.25%), together with the FOMC Economic Projections for the next 2 years and a Rate Statement which will contain insights into the reasons which determined the rate decision. Half an hour later, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a Press Conference which might be the biggest market mover of the day so extra caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British CPI dropped to 1.0%, a fact which only weakened the Pound briefly before the bulls took over, taking the pair above resistance.

[Image: 2014.12.17-Huge-day-for-the-US-Dollar-wi...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.5750 couldn’t be sustained and price soon moved below the level, showing rejection on a four hour chart. The pin bar created right on resistance suggests that price encountered a strong level which cannot be broken decisively at least for the moment, but we have a day filled with important news releases and we are likely to see strong moves which will decide the next medium term direction.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Claimant Count is released at 9:30 am GMT with an expected change of -19.8K while last month’s number was -20.4K. The indicator shows the change in the number of people who applied for unemployment related social help and a higher number suggests that the jobs market is contracting so the Pound will be negatively affected by a rise in jobless claims. At the same time, a breakdown of the MPC votes on the latest interest rate is released and this is a good opportunity for traders to see if the BOE is changing its stance on the interest rate. The US events will have a direct and strong impact on the pair’s movement.
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FOREX NEWS: FINISHING THE WEEK ON A BEARISH NOTE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The Euro continued to weaken against the US Dollar during yesterday’s trading session and the pair touched 1.2280 support. Both the German and American economic indicators posted readings close to analysts’ expectations and this dampened their impact.

[Image: 2014.12.19-Finishing-the-week-on-a-beari...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved easily below 1.2360 and continued south to touch 1.2280 although the Relative Strength Index was trading close to oversold territory for the most part of the day. At the moment price is showing rejection off of 1.2280 support and the Relative Strength Index is starting to move upwards so we anticipate a day with bullish movement which may find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A clear break of support may bring in additional sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major news events for the Euro and the US Dollar, so price direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales posted a surprising 1.6% increase while analysts’ expectations were just 0.3%. This created Pound strength and a bullish day.

[Image: 2014.12.19-Finishing-the-week-on-a-beari...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After moving below the support at 1.5590 and coming very close to 1.5540 support, the pair started to move north, back above 1.5590. The Relative Strength Index touched the 30 level, becoming oversold and this played a major role from a technical point of view. Today we expect mixed price action, without significant advances; if the Relative Strength Index will become overbought during the day, the sellers might take the pair lower, with 1.5590 being the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 9:30 am GMT, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing is announced. This is the amount of new debt held by the central and local governments and a higher number is viewed as detrimental for the Pound; the expected value is 14.8B while last month the debt was at 7.1B.
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FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE BRINGS CHOPPY PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD



Friday the bears continued to take price lower, breaking 1.2280 support on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall we saw unidirectional price action, without whipsaws or sudden reversals.

[Image: 2014.12.22-A-lackluster-fundamental-scen...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

We are entering Christmas Week and Mondays are known to be slow days, especially if no major news is released. The Relative Strength Index has been moving for an extended period close to the 30 level which suggests oversold and the current bear run seems a bit overextended so we expect bullish retracements. However, keep in mind the pair is in a clear downtrend from a short and long term perspective so further downside action is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Existing Home Sales are announced at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the day’s only notable release. An increase in home sales suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the greenback but the indicator has a medium impact on price action. Today’s forecast is 5.21M and higher values will probably trigger limited dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar gained against the Pound as well but the pair’s descent wasn’t as substantial as seen in the EUR/USD pair and support was not broken.

[Image: 2014.12.22-A-lackluster-fundamental-scen...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on an hourly chart but 1.5590 support sits in front of falling prices. Today we anticipate another encounter with the mentioned level but if this happens, the Relative Strength Index might move below the 30 level, suggesting an oversold condition. Considering the pair is not in a strong trend from a short term perspective, we anticipate a bounce higher towards the 50 period EMA if 1.5590 is not clearly broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so price action will be driven by technical factors and by the US house market data.
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FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION WITH BOTH PAIRS UNDER PRESSURE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair moved north yesterday on the back of a disappointing value of the US Existing Home Sales but also because the short term downtrend was overextended and in need of a retracement.

[Image: 2014.12.23-Irregular-price-action-with-b...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is likely to continue on a bullish path until 1.2280 is touched but we don’t believe this resistance will be broken today and instead we expect a bounce lower. If the bounce occurs, the first support is represented by the level of 1.2220. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will also provide dynamic resistance but keep in mind that winter holidays usually generate irregular movement and technical analysis is not reliable.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Durable Goods Orders are released today at 1:30 pm GMT with an expected change to 3.0% from last month’s 0.3%. Such an increase would suggest an expanding economy and would strengthen the US Dollar, taking the pair lower.


GBP/USD

Price reversed yesterday after an initial climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we saw choppy price after for the rest of the day but immediate support was not breached.

[Image: 2014.12.23-Irregular-price-action-with-b...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is under pressure and there’s a distinct possibility of a drop below 1.5590 support but we don’t expect price to travel for an extended distance in one direction. Volatility will probably alternate during the day and we expect price action to be choppy and irregular but a clear break of 1.5590 could take price in close vicinity of 1.5540.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account is announced today at 9:30 am GMT; this indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and a higher value than the expected -21.1B is considered beneficial for the Pound. At the same time the British Bankers’ Association announces the Mortgage Approvals; the indicator offers insights into the housing market and a higher number than the forecast 37.3K suggests that more houses will be bought in the near future with the help of a mortgage, a fact which normally strengthens the Pound.
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FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION SLOWS DOWN FOR CHRISTMAS EVE


EUR/USD



Forex News: The pair dropped substantially yesterday as the US Dollar continued to strengthen and the Euro weakened on the back of speculation that Greece may be headed towards early elections.

[Image: 2014.12.24-Price-action-slows-down-for-C...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Short term support at 1.2220 was broken after two small bounces and once this happened, more sellers joined the renewed downtrend. The latest momentum belongs to the bears and the pair is trading well below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition and this makes us believe that price will retrace higher. Keep in mind that today is Christmas Eve and the market will tend to present irregular behavior.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Unemployment Claims are the single notable release of the day, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The expected number is 291K and an increase in unemployment would suggest that the economy is slowing down and this usually weakens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Current Account disappointed yesterday, showing that the deficit increased and the Pound responded quickly by weakening against the greenback.

[Image: 2014.12.24-Price-action-slows-down-for-C...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair remained under the level at 1.5590 which turned into resistance as showed by the touch from below which resulted in a bounce lower. The important support at 1.5540 was also broken and this might suggest the end of the ranging period, but the approaching of Christmas might nullify the effect of this break and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see a return back above 1.5540. The Relative Strength Index is also oversold and this may add to the probability of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day and we expect irregular price action, with alternating volatility.
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FOREX NEWS: CHRISTMAS BRINGS PRICE ACTION TO A HALT


EUR/USD



Forex News: As expected price action yesterday was slow and the economic releases didn’t have a lot of impact. The pair retraced higher and touched short term resistance but a break didn’t occur and instead price bounced lower.

[Image: image0011-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Today price action will come to a stop due to the fact that a large part of the world is celebrating Christmas. When the market will open, the pair may present gaps and probably irregular volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

Many important banks around the world (including American and European banks) will be closed today, celebrating Christmas Day and no economic indicators will be released for either the Euro or the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Similar to our other pair, the GBP/USD retraced higher, following an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index. For the most part of the day price traded above and below 1.5540, without significant advances.

[Image: image0031-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, the market is taking a breather today and trading will be suspended. Depending on the world’s time zones, price movement will resume sooner or later and once it does, we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Banks are closed due to the Christmas Holiday and no economic releases are scheduled.

We wish a Mary Christmas to those of you who celebrate this Holiday!
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FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET RESUMES MOVEMENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: The market was closed yesterday, so price didn’t show any activity and no economic news came out.

[Image: 2014.12.26-The-market-resumes-movement-p...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Even though the market is open today, we still expect price action to be irregular and choppy. The short term resistance at 1.2220 is holding and price bounced lower once it touched it so we expect some downside price action, with 1.2165 being the first minor support.

Fundamental Outlook

Many banks around the world are still closed and no economic indicators are released, a fact which contributes to the day’s low volume and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair stopped yesterday and no movement was seen as many people around the world celebrated the Christmas Holiday.

[Image: 2014.12.26-The-market-resumes-movement-p...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Wednesday price moved above the level at 1.5540 but we cannot consider this to be a true break as it could be generated by low volume and might not be a real attempt of the bulls to take control of the pair. The main levels to watch today are located at 1.5540 and 1.5590 but keep in mind that price action could be characterized by sharp turns and alternating volatility.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases and British banks are closed today, a fact which will add to the day’s irregular price action.
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FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION ON THE BACK OF A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL ENVIRONMENT


EUR/USD



Forex News: Friday the market resumed movement after being paused for Christmas and the pair moved lower, following a bounce on resistance. Overall we had a slow session, with price traveling in a single direction.

[Image: 2014.12.29-Irregular-price-action-on-the...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

For the time being price is confined between 1.2165 support and 1.2220 resistance and a break of either one may trigger and extended move in that direction but considering the approaching of the New Year and the lack of economic releases, we may also see false breaks. It’s possible for price to move outside one of the levels but then to run out of steam and return inside, so extra caution is recommended if you are going to trade breakouts.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks important news releases and we expect choppy price action, with low volume and irregular volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair had a very slow day Friday, with price moving very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which remained flat for the entire day.

[Image: 2014.12.29-Irregular-price-action-on-the...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Today we will probably see either a bounce higher off of 1.5540, or a bearish break and a consequent move towards the minor support at 1.5485. However, the first move is likely to be reversed, so wait for a re-test before trading if a break does occur. Keep in mind that price is flat and Friday’s movement doesn’t show a lot about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for the day, contributing to the lackluster fundamental scene.
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