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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: FINAL DAY OF THE TRADING WEEK RULED BY TECHNICAL FACTORS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Manufacturing PMI disappointed yesterday and American inflation numbers came out slightly better than anticipated but the impact was not very strong and the pair showed very choppy price action throughout the day.

[Image: 2014.11.21-Final-day-of-the-trading-week...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.2577 again but failed to move above it and then the bullish trend line was tested but it offered good enough support. The picture is mixed and neither side is in control, a situation which will most likely continue until 1.2577 resistance or diagonal support is broken. Horizontal support sits at 1.2500 and will be the pair’s first destination if the trend line is breached.

Fundamental Outlook

The day is rather calm in terms of economic news releases but ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at the 24th European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt and this can be a reason for volatility depending on the matters discussed. The event is scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and caution is recommended although the speech is not expected to be a major market mover.


GBP/USD

British Retail Sales showed a change of 0.8%, much better than the anticipated 0.4% and the Pound strengthened as a result, generating a trading day with bullish price action.

[Image: 2014.11.21-Final-day-of-the-trading-week...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.5750 wasn’t threatened yesterday and the Relative Strength Index is close to the 70 level which shows a potentially overbought condition. If price will touch 1.5750 with the RSI being overbought, we favor a bounce lower, with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average being the first support. A break of this support would open the door for a move towards 1.5590.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major news releases for the Pound but the only noteworthy data is the Public Sector Net Borrowing scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to decrease to 6.9B from the previous 11.1B. A lower figure than the anticipated one is considered beneficial for the Pound but the indicator usually has a medium impact.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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FOREX NEWS: SCARCE ECONOMIC RELEASES TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW MONDAY

EUR/USD


Forex News: Last week’s strongest move occurred Friday on the back of Mario Draghi’s renewed commitment to add further stimulus in order to boost economic recovery and to raise inflation. This was perceived as bearish for the Euro and the pair moved strongly south.

[Image: 2014.11.24-Scarce-economic-releases-tran...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair broke through the bullish trend line and the support at 1.2500 before stopping close to 1.2400 support. The momentum clearly belongs to the bears as the Euro is affected by inflation concerns and we expect the downside to prevail but before that can happen, some sort of retracement higher is likely to occur. The Relative Strength Index traveled below its 30 level, indicating oversold and increasing the chances of bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the German IFO Business Climate survey is the only notable event of the day. This survey shows the optimism of about 7,000 German business owners regarding economic conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The scheduled time of the release is 9:00 am GMT and a higher number than the expected 103.0 usually has a beneficial impact on the Euro.


GBP/USD

Friday the US Dollar pushed the pair lower but the strength of the move was not convincing and a lot of the losses were erased later during the day. Overall we saw choppy price action, without substantial advances.

[Image: 2014.11.24-Scarce-economic-releases-tran...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair has been moving mostly sideways lately, with single impulses which failed to be continued and were quickly reversed. The bias is slightly bearish but it is clear that momentum is not strong; however, price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.5590 is likely to act as a magnet. Resistance is located at 1.5750 but we don’t expect it to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook


There are no economic releases scheduled today for the Pound and the same is true for the US Dollar so we expect a slow day, with choppy price action.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
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FOREX NEWS: A BUSY DAY AHEAD: AMERICAN GDP AND BRITISH INFLATION HEARINGS IN THE FOCUS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro climbed against the American Dollar yesterday as price direction was affected by a better than expected value of the German IFO Business Climate survey. Technical factors like the oversold condition of the pair also played an important role for the pair’s movement.

[Image: 2014.11.25-A-busy-day-ahead-American-GDP...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although yesterday the pair climbed, the bears still have enough underlying strength to bring price down for another test of the support level at 1.2360. If the pair continues upwards, it will encounter resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a bullish break will open the door for a touch of 1.2500 resistance. The fundamental aspect will have an important influence on today’s price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The first noteworthy event of the day is the release of the American Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. A higher value than the expected 3.3% would generate US Dollar strength although this version of the GDP is less important than the Advance version.

The US Consumer Confidence is released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to increase from the previous value of 94.5 to 95.9. A consumer that is confident in the economic situation of the country is likely to spend more and this helps the economy, thus a higher than anticipated value will add fuel to the US Dollar, driving the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The Pound also climbed yesterday although no major indicators were released. Overall we had a pretty slow day, with price action mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

[Image: 2014.11.25-A-busy-day-ahead-American-GDP...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is moving mostly sideways lately and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control; price is sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a clear slope of the line is not present, indicating the pair is in a ranging period. Until either 1.5750 resistance or 1.5590 support is broken, the ranging period is not over and direction changes can occur, especially if the Relative Strength Index will reach an extreme condition.

Fundamental Outlook

BOE Governor Mark Carney and other MPC members will testify on inflation today at 10:00 am GMT before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings last for a few hours and during this time volatility and sharp moves may be experienced. Before the hearings start, at 9:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approval numbers; the forecast is 38.5K and a higher value is likely to strengthen the Pound but usually this indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
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FOREX NEWS: THE DOWNTREND WAVERS. RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product posted a better than expected reading but the pair failed to break 1.2400 and rebounded higher after a brief moment of bearishness.

[Image: 2014.11.26-The-downtrend-wavers.-Resista...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s rise took price in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart but resistance has not been broken so the picture is not strongly bullish for the moment. On the other hand, support pushed price higher and this makes 1.2500 the first target. However, if 1.2500 is touched and the Relative Strength Index is overbought at the time, we anticipate a bounce lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.4% while last month’s value was -1.1%. The indicator tracks changes in the value of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.

The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 3:00 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 471K, slightly better than last month’s 467K. Same as for the other indicator, a higher value suggests economic expansion and usually strengthens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound had a good day against the US Dollar despite the value of the American GDP which was better than anticipated. The Inflation Report hearings created mixed market reaction which did not result in strong movement.

[Image: 2014.11.26-The-downtrend-wavers.-Resista...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was clearly broken yesterday and now will probably act as support. The immediate target is located at 1.5750 but the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory and we expect a bounce lower if the level mentioned will be touched. If 1.5750 will be broken we expect further upside movement after a test from above.


Fundamental Outlook

Great Britain’s Second Estimate GDP is released at 9:30 GMT and being the main gauge of economic performance, better values than the expected 0.7% will most likely generate Pound strength. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
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FOREX NEWS: THANKSGIVING DAY GENERATES IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD


Forex News: The data released yesterday by the United States was disappointing and generated US Dollar weakness, thus the pair had a bullish day and price broke through short term resistance.

[Image: 2014.11.27-Thanksgiving-Day-generates-ir...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will most likely trigger irregular movement and periods of alternating volume, especially during the American session. From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a re-test from above of the recently broken level at 1.2500; adding to this is the position of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart, but if the bulls can maintain price above the mentioned level, we expect further upside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Since today is Thanksgiving Day, The United States will not release any economic data. However, an important indicator will affect price action: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation for the German economy. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and the CPI is expected to increase to 0.0% from the previous -0.3%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product met analysts forecast but worse than expected US economic data generated greenback weakness and allowed the pair to climb above resistance.

[Image: 2014.11.27-Thanksgiving-Day-generates-ir...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above 1.5750 which was previously resistance but the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart is showing clear overbought signs. This makes us believe that price will have another encounter with 1.5750; a bounce higher would suggest that 1.5750 is now support and that we will see further bullish price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic indicators for today thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect but keep in mind that irregular movement can occur due to Thanksgiving Day.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION IN THE FOCUS. US DOLLAR STILL AFFECTED BY HOLIDAYS

EUR/USD


Forex News: Although the German CPI met analysts’ expectations and came out better than last month, the pair dropped yesterday below short term support; however the bears couldn’t continue the initial impulse and volatility toned down.

[Image: 2014.11.28-European-inflation-in-the-foc...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.2500 but the picture is mixed and we don’t expect a lot of action today considering that Thanksgiving will still affect the US Dollar. The bullish trend line seen on the chart above will be the first barrier in front of falling prices and the level at 1.2500 can hinder further bullish movement. A break of either one could trigger an extended move but low volume will be present probably and this can generate sharp turns.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is the release of the European Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to decrease 0.3% compared with last month’s 0.4%. Lately inflation has been a major concern for the ECB and lower values than anticipated can have a negative impact on the Euro.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair returned to test the recently broken level at 1.5750 but resistance didn’t turn into support and the bears managed to take price lower. Overall we had a day controlled almost entirely by the sellers.

[Image: 2014.11.28-European-inflation-in-the-foc...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Before the drop below 1.5750 the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition which had an important role in yesterday’s drop, especially because neither the Pound nor the US Dollar was affected by economic news. Now price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.5750 so the picture is bearish but keep in mind that price is approaching oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound won’t be affected by any major economic news releases and the same is true for the US Dollar. We expect a day with irregular movement and volatility due to American holidays.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: BEARISH ADVANCEMENTS CONFIRMED BY A BREAK OF SUPPORT


EUR/USD


Friday the US Dollar strengthened as a result of a much better than anticipated value of the Non Farm Employment Change. Analysts’ forecast was 231K new jobs but the actual number was 321K and this took the pair back into support.


[Image: 2014.12.08-Bearish-advancements-confirme...24x479.png]


Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum generated by the Non Farm Payrolls is likely to continue today and we expect a move below 1.2280. However, last week price bounced strongly once the current level was touched, so we might see several attempts until the level is clearly broken. Even if the break occurs, we expect price to return to the level of a retest, especially if the Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition during the day.



Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today, attended by important figures from the European financial and political scene. The meetings are closed to the press but sometimes officials talk to journalists during the day and a statement is released once the meetings conclude. Volatility may be present throughout the day but unless surprise developments take place, we don’t expect strong moves.



GBP/USD

American employment affected the pair strongly and took price almost 130 pips lower on the back of greenback strength. This may mark the end of the ranging price action seen during the last period.

[Image: 2014.12.08-Bearish-advancements-confirme...24x479.png]


Technical Outlook

The support at 1.5590 was broken Friday but considering the importance of this level for short term price action, we expect a retest from below which will show if the bears can take the pair lower and if the break was a real one. The Relative Strength Index is bouncing close to the oversold level and this may generate some bullish movement and probably the retest mentioned before.


Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any financial indicator releases for today, so we expect a slow day, with price action driven by the technical aspect.
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FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM PRICE ACTION FAVORS THE BULLS. MAIN TREND STILL DOWN

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro had a very good day against the US Dollar, strengthening for more than 150 pips and breaking several resistance levels. For the most part of yesterday’s trading session the pair moved straight north and the bulls were in complete control.


[Image: 2014.12.10-Short-term-price-action-favor...24x479.png]



Technical Outlook
Two levels of interest were broken during yesterday’s rally: 1.2360 and 1.2400. Now price is sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the momentum clearly belongs to the bulls. This makes us believe that the current impulse will extend towards 1.2500 but the Relative Strength Index is showing an overbought condition and the short term resistance at 1.2455 sits in front of rising prices. We expect some moves lower which will clear the overbought condition, followed by another climb but keep in mind that the main trend is bearish, thus stronger moves south are not out of the question.



Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead lacks major economic and financial news releases for both the Euro and the US Dollar, making the technical aspect the more important one.


GBP/USD
Yesterday’s price action was choppy and a clear direction wasn’t established until later in the day when the bulls managed to take price higher, above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.



[Image: 2014.12.10-Short-term-price-action-favor...24x479.png]


Technical Outlook

Although early in the week the pair moved below the support at 1.5590, the bears couldn’t maintain price below it and the break soon proved to be fake. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken to the upside and this will most likely take the pair into the resistance at 1.5750. Even if this level will be broken to the upside, we don’t expect it to happen in the first attempt, considering that the Relative Strength Index might become overbought when price touches resistance.


Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so price direction will be mainly influenced by technical factors.
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FOREX NEWS: ECB’S LONG TERM REFINANCING OPTION, A MAJOR MARKET MOVER


EUR/USD



Forex News: Yesterday the pair moved above 1.2400 resistance, reversing a previous retracement below this level. The day belonged to the bulls but the action was rather slow, compared with the previous move, probably because economic releases were scarce.


[Image: image001-1024x479.png]

Technical Outlook


Price found support in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and of 1.2360 support but 1.2455 short term resistance wasn’t touched although the bulls controlled the day’s price action. We expect a move above 1.2455 resistance but if this doesn’t happen today, we are likely to see a return below 1.2360 support. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index which is approaching overbought and could trigger reversals.


Fundamental Outlook


At 10:15 am GMT the ECB will announce the value of their Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option). This is the total amount of money the ECB will create and loan to European commercial banks in order to boost liquidity. The current value is 82.6B and the forecast is 148.2B but the impact might be difficult to anticipate as market participants can interpret differently the actual value.
The US Retail Sales are announced at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change 0.4% while last month’s change was 0.3%. Higher values will most likely benefit the greenback because sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the entire economic activity.


GBP/USD


The pair showed choppy price action for the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and remained in a tight range. Neither bulls nor bears were in clear control but minor advances north were made.


[Image: image003-1024x479.png]



Technical Outlook


The pair is still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but important resistance sits in front of rising prices: 1.5750. If this level cannot be breached today, we expect price to start moving towards the support at 1.5590. If this is the case, the Moving Average will be the first area of dynamic support.


Fundamental Outlook


The pair’s direction will be influenced today by the US Retail Sales as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases. Keep an eye on the CORE version of this indicator, which excludes automobiles from calculation.
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FOREX NEWS: UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS – THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR FRIDAY’S PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD



Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as the American Retail Sales came out with a better than expected value, showing that economic activity in this sector is picking up. ECB’s Targeted LTRO came out with the value of 129.8B, less than the expected 148.2 but the event didn’t create strong moves.


[Image: 2014.12.12-United-States-economic-indica...24x481.png]


Technical Outlook


After breaking 1.2455 to the upside, the pair became overbought as shown by the Relative Strength Index and this, coupled with the dollar strength generated by the US Retail Sales release, pushed the pair below 1.2400. Currently the pair is retesting the recently broken level from below and we believe this retest will result in another push lower. The first target is the support at 1.2360, followed by 1.2280.


Fundamental Outlook


All major indicators of the day come from the US with the first release being scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the Producer Price Index. The indicator tracks changes in prices charged by producers and has inflationary implications because a higher price will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The forecast is -0.1% while the previous was 0.2% and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.


The University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey at 2:55 pm GMT. Increased confidence among consumer is usually a leading signal of increased consumer spending and that’s the reason why a higher value than the expected 89.6 is perceived as beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD


The pair touched 1.5750 resistance yesterday but the bulls failed to take price above and this resulted in an almost picture-perfect bounce lower. The fact that US Retail Sales exceeded analysts’ expectations also played a big role in yesterday’s price action.


[Image: 2014.12.12-United-States-economic-indica...24x481.png]


Technical Outlook


Although price bounced lower once 1.5750 resistance was touched, the pair couldn’t move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and instead it showed rejection once the line was tested. For the time being, the pair’s direction is still not decided and our bias is neutral until either 1.5750 resistance or the 50 period EMA is broken. Next resistance is located at 1.5825 while next support sits at 1.5590.


Fundamental Outlook


The Pound had a slow week in terms of economic releases and today is no exception, so the pair’s direction will be influenced by the technical aspect and by the US releases.
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