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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: FINISHING THE WEEK WITH A BANG: THE US NON FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT

EUR/USD


Forex News: Although the ECB kept rates unchanged at a record low, the Euro weakened yesterday against most of its peers and a sharp fall was seen in our pair when ECB President Mario Draghi commented that additional stimulus measures will be used if needed.

[Image: 2014.11.07-Finishing-the-week-with-a-Ban...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2440 was breached yesterday but price soon retraced for a re-test; if the pair will rebound here, the level will turn into resistance and further down swings are anticipated. The Relative Strength Index is not signaling an extreme oversold situation and momentum belongs to the bears but the US employment report released today will strongly affect the US Dollar and will probably determine the day’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT in the form of the US Non Farm Employment Change, also known as Non Farm Payrolls. This is considered the most important jobs related data coming from the United States and a higher number can strengthen the greenback substantially as more jobs indicate that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The expected number is 229K, a drop from last month’s 248K. Later in the day, at 3:15 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a Symposium in Paris; audience questions are expected and volatility can increase so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to keep rates unchanged as expected but the pair had similar behavior to the EUR/USD and price moved into support after bouncing at resistance.

[Image: 2014.11.07-Finishing-the-week-with-a-Ban...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average combined with the level at 1.6000 offered enough resistance for price to bounce lower and to maintain that direction for almost the entire day. On the other hand, the level at 1.5900 couldn’t be broken and we saw the pair pause there so we can’t consider either side to be in clear control. On top of that, today’s technical aspect will be secondary as the US employment data will hold center stage.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases today so price direction will be mainly affected by the US events.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE AT SUPPORT: SIMPLE RETRACEMENT OR A REVERSAL IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD


Forex News: The American Non Farm Payrolls showed a disappointing number for Friday’s release and the US Dollar weakened as a result, allowing the pair to climb above short term resistance. At the time of the release price action was choppy and some whipsaws could be seen on the lower time frames.

[Image: 2014.11.10-Bounce-at-support-Simple-retr...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although price crossed 1.2440 to the upside, the main picture still remains bearish as the pair is still below its 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.2500 resistance. The first barrier the bears need to break is the current level at 1.2440 followed by 1.2360 but today we don’t expect major moves as the fundamental scene holds no special events.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the Sentix Investor Confidence survey is the only thing that could affect the Euro today but overall we have a calm day. The survey is based on the opinions of about 2,800 investors and analysts regarding economic health, but usually it doesn’t create strong movement unless a big difference between forecast and actual number is posted. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the forecast is -6.9.


GBP/USD

Price direction was affected Friday by the US employment report and overall the pair moved similar to the EUR/USD, climbing due to a weak greenback.

[Image: 2014.11.10-Bounce-at-support-Simple-retr...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the Dollar showed signs of weakness, the Pound bulls couldn’t break or even touch the resistance at 1.5900. From a strictly technical point of view, Friday’s climb can be attributed to bullish divergence present on a four-hour chart and can be considered a simple retracement in a downtrend. For today we expect a bounce at 1.5900, followed by a move lower but if this level will be breached, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will be the next resistance; support sits at 1.5790, Friday’s low.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day so price action will be determined by the technical aspect.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: BANK HOLIDAYS MAY TRIGGER IRREGULAR VOLATILITY

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair continued to move higher yesterday, on the back of a US Dollar weakened by Friday’s disappointing NFP result. However, resistance couldn’t be surpassed and a bounce lower was seen in the second part of the day.

[Image: 2014.11.11-Bank-Holidays-may-trigger-irr...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.2500 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average created a confluence zone which proved enough motive for the pair to start to move on a bearish path. Now 1.2440 has turned into support once again and a break would make 1.2360 the next target; we favor this scenario as the bears still have underlying strength and a downtrend is still in place.

Fundamental Outlook

American Banks will be closed today, celebrating Veterans Day and French Banks will be closed in celebration of Armistice Day. This means that no major indicators will be released and that price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair spent a lot of time yesterday near the resistance at 1.5900 before finally dropping in the second part of the day as the bulls made several failed attempts to break the mentioned level.

[Image: 2014.11.11-Bank-Holidays-may-trigger-irr...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

On an hourly chart, price moved back below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.5900 couldn’t be clearly broken although several candles pierced it. These are bearish signs which make us believe that today the sellers will be in control of the pair and will take it lower. The first potential support is located at 1.5790 but a break of this level is not anticipated although we expect price to move towards it. For the time being, the level at 1.5900 is still resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by important news releases and the fact that American Banks are closed may generate irregular volatility.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
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Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH INFLATION REPORT AND CARNEY’S SPEECH TAKE CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair moved very slowly compared to the way it has moved during the last period and clear direction lacked. However, the bulls showed more strength and price traveled upwards for the most part of the day.

[Image: 2014.11.12-British-Inflation-Report-and-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The latest move north is not very convincing and we anticipate that price will drop towards the support at 1.2360 if the resistance at 1.2440 is not broken soon. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is above price, a fact which means that the picture remains bearish. On the other hand, a break of 1.2440 resistance would open the door for a move towards 1.2500 and would make the short term bias bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is announced today at 10:00 am GMT and is expected to change 0.6% while last month’s value was -1.8%. The indicator measures the change in the value of output produced by manufacturers and a higher number suggests a thriving economy and usually strengthens the Euro.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day as well and probably a big role was played by the fact that yesterday US Banks were closed. For most of the day control did not clearly belong to either side but overall the bulls were more prominent.

[Image: 2014.11.12-British-Inflation-Report-and-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The current direction is likely to remain unchanged until 1.5900 is touched and if that happens, we anticipate a bounce lower. On the other hand, a break of resistance followed by a successful re-test will most likely bring in more buyers and the bias will turn bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is released today at 9:30 am GMT; the indicator shows how many people applied for social help due to unemployment compared with the previous month and lower numbers are beneficial for the currency. The anticipated change is -24.9K while the previous was -18.6.

At 10:30 am GMT the BoE will release the Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the report which contains an outlook for inflation for the next 2 years. Carney’s speech will probably be the day’s most important event and volatility is likely to increase at the time so caution is recommended.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED WHILE THE POUND STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME SUPPORT

EUR/USD


Forex News: Euro Zone’s Industrial Production came out as anticipated, with a change of 0.6% so the event didn’t generate substantial movement. For almost the entire day the pair bounced between support and resistance, without clear direction.

[Image: 2014.11.13-Euro-breakouts-anticipated-wh...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook


The support at 1.2440 and the resistance at 1.2500 proved to be strong barriers which rejected price yesterday. However, today we expect price to move outside the range created by the two levels and to continue in the direction of the initial break. We favor the short side given the fact that yesterday the Relative Strength Index reached its 70 level twice and another bullish move would probably create bearish divergence. First support will be located at 1.2360 if 1.2440 is broken while resistance sits at 1.2620 if 1.2500 is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major news releases but noteworthy is the German Final Consumer Price Index which is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT. The expected change is -0.3%, same as last month but the Final version doesn’t hold as much importance as the Preliminary; higher values would strengthen the Euro nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened substantially yesterday as the Claimant Count Change posted a value of -20.4K, worse than analysts expected. This took price back below 1.5900 and generated a day controlled by the bears.

[Image: 2014.11.13-Euro-breakouts-anticipated-wh...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook


The momentum belongs to the bears once again but the important support at 1.5790 sits in front of descending prices. If this barrier can be surpassed, the next level of importance is represented by 1.5750 but we must note the position of the Relative Strength Index which touched the 30 level twice yesterday on an hourly chart. This doesn’t mean necessarily that price will bounce higher at support but it is a bullish factor which must be taken into account.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major news releases scheduled for today thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES DETERMINE THE TREND

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained confined inside the horizontal channel created by support and resistance and although price action was mostly bullish, the anticipated breakout didn’t occur.

[Image: 2014.11.14-US-Retail-Sales-determine-the...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

A breakout is still anticipated as yesterday price failed to move out of the horizontal channel and now the pair has been moving mostly sideways for an extended period of time. Support is located at 1.2440 and resistance at 1.2500 and a break of either one will most likely generate a strong move in that direction. The fundamental scene is busy today and this adds to our belief that price will break the channel.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT and is expected to grow from last month’s -0.2% to 0.1%. This would be beneficial for the Euro as the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall health.

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Retail Sales are released, with an anticipated change of 0.2% compared with last month’s -0.3%. Because sales made at a retail level represent an important part of the entire economic activity, a higher value would suggest increased activity and thus a stronger greenback. The final important indicator of the week is the Consumer Sentiment survey released by the University of Michigan. The scheduled time is 2:55 pm GMT and the forecast is 87.3, a small increase from last month’s 86.9.


GBP/USD

The pair traveled south for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and support was clearly broken. The downtrend has a new low and the US Dollar is easily overpowering the Pound.

[Image: 2014.11.14-US-Retail-Sales-determine-the...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The important support at 1.5750 was broken yesterday but the Relative Strength Index is now showing a clear oversold condition, traveling below its 30 level on an hourly chart. The latest move seems a bit overextended and this creates the possibility of a bullish move which will re-test the broken level at 1.5750 before the downtrend can resume.

Fundamental Outlook

Although the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major news today, the American events will have a direct and important impact on the pair’s movement. Positive US data will most likely take the pair lower.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON DRAGHI’S TESTIMONY ON MONETARY POLICY

EUR/USD


Forex News: A better than expected US Retail Sales reading initially took price lower Friday, creating US Dollar strength, but soon after the pair rebounded higher, breaking resistance.

[Image: 2014.11.17-All-eyes-on-Draghis-testimony...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved outside the horizontal channel by breaking the resistance located at 1.2500 and we expect the upside to prevail today but a test of the recently broken level is very probable. The Relative Strength Index is curving downwards in close vicinity of its 70 level, adding to our belief that price will touch 1.2500 before moving north. If price will not bounce higher and the level will not turn into support, we are likely to see a move towards 1.2400.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. The topic will be monetary policy and this makes the speech a very important one because traders around the globe will try to decipher his words in order to find clues about the next interest rate decision. Volatility is expected and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Friday’s trading session was characterized by mixed behavior as price dropped when the US Retail Sales came out but soon the Pound erased most of the losses and the pair moved north, finishing the week on a bullish note.

[Image: 2014.11.17-All-eyes-on-Draghis-testimony...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has started to move upwards and is trying to come out of oversold territory so for today’s trading session we expect price to rise, having 1.5750 as target. However, this resistance level could be a too distant target as Mondays are usually slow days if no major economic indicators are released. To the downside, potential support sits at 1.5590 and we don’t expect it to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today but the pair will be influenced by the US Industrial Production numbers which come out at 2:15 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the value of output produced by the Industrial sector and higher values than today’s anticipated 0.2% will most likely strengthen the greenback, taking the pair lower.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH INFLATION IN THE FOCUS – POUND HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY THE CPI READING

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the sellers managed to reverse the initial bullish breakout and to bring the pair back inside the horizontal channel. ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that added stimulus is needed to bring the economy back on the right track and this created further Euro weakness.

[Image: 2014.11.18-British-inflation-in-the-focu...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the channel created by 1.2500 resistance and 1.2400 support was broken, price returned inside, signaling that the pair might be headed towards 1.2400. The bias is slightly bearish but as long as price cannot exit the channel and remain outside, the ranging period is not over and we might see further choppy price action.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released and expected to show a value of 0.9, an increase from last month’s -3.6. The survey tracks optimism among German professional analysts and investors and usually a higher than anticipated number strengthens the Euro.

The American Producer Price Index will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.1%, same as last month. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the retail consumer so higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped yesterday after a bullish move which brought price in close vicinity of 1.5750 resistance. Almost the entire day was controlled by the bears but support was not threatened.

[Image: 2014.11.18-British-inflation-in-the-focu...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The outlook is once again bearish as the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average after a failed attempt to move above it. The first support and potential target for the day is located at 1.5590, while resistance still sits at 1.5750 but the day’s bias will be determined by the British inflation numbers released in the morning.

Fundamental Outlook


The British Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 1.2%, same as last month. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recently expressed his concerns about downside risks for inflation and this could mean that a lower value of the CPI might be perceived more bearish than usual, generating Pound weakness.
 
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING MINUTES

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the ZEW Economic Sentiment survey showed increased levels of optimism among German analysts and professional investors, a fact that strengthened the Euro and took the pair back above short term resistance.

[Image: 2014.11.19-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-t...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The period of indecision is still not over as shown by the pair’s movement lately: resistance has been broken but the bulls failed to push price higher and on the other hand, the bears couldn’t make any significant advances when price moved below 1.2500 again. Currently price is testing the level at 1.2500 which may turn into support but if it’s broken to the downside, support will be offered by the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. If price travels higher the first resistance is represented by the double top located at 1.2577.

Fundamental Outlook

The American Building Permits numbers are announced at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to increase to 1.04M from last month’s 1.02M (annualized number), a fact which would generate US Dollar strength. However, a more important event is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. The Minutes contain insights into the reasons which stood behind the latest interest rate decision and usually can offer hints about the bias of future monetary policy. We expect strong moves for the greenback at the time of the release and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index surprised yesterday by showing an increase of 1.3% compared with analysts’ expectation of 1.2%. However, the market didn’t respond as anticipated and the Pound didn’t move strongly at the time of the release.

[Image: 2014.11.19-Mixed-price-action-ahead-of-t...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good resistance yesterday and pushed price lower but the picture remains mixed, with a slightly bearish bias, considering the strong downtrend. The first support is located at 1.5590 but if price can break through the Moving Average, we will probably see a climb close to 1.5750.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will make public today at 9:30 am GMT the breakdown of the latest interest rate votes. This is a good opportunity to see if more MPC members voted for a rate change or if some of them are starting to change their stance. Usually volatility is created only if some MPC members changed their view, but caution is recommended nonetheless.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN INFLATION NUMBERS AND BRITISH RETAIL SALES – THE DAY’S MARKET-MOVERS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to keep the pair above 1.2500 yesterday before the FOMC Meeting Minutes and once the document was released, the US Dollar showed choppy behavior as concern about US inflation surfaced.

[Image: 2014.11.20-American-inflation-numbers-an...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair pierced the resistance created by the double top formation at 1.2577 but rejection was seen and overall we had mixed price action at the time of the FOMC Minutes release. However, yesterday was mainly bullish and if price will move above 1.2577 we are likely to see a move towards 1.2620. To the downside, support is located at 1.2500 but to get there, the bears will first have to take price below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bullish trend line.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Manufacturing PMI is released early at 8:30 am GMT and expected to change from last month’s 51.4 to 51.5. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health which shows optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector, a higher than anticipated number will most likely take the pair higher.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the American Consumer Price Index is released and expected to change -0.1% while last month’s change was 0.1%. The CPI is one of the main inflation gauges for the United States economy and any percentage above the forecast can lead to a stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Bank of England’s Meeting Minutes showed that some of the members see inflationary risks in the near future and the Pound strengthened as a result but later in the day some of the gains were erased when the FOMC Minutes came out.

[Image: 2014.11.20-American-inflation-numbers-an...s-pic2.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair created a double bottom at 1.5590 and immediately after, price bounced higher, helped also by fundamental reasons. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was successfully pierced to the upside and we expect this bullish behavior to continue today. However, the fundamental aspect for both the Pound and the US Dollar will have a strong impact and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released at 9:30 am GMT and the event is usually a strong market mover as sales made at retail level represent a hefty part of the entire economy. A bigger change than the expected 0.4% (previous -0.3%) would benefit the Pound, taking the pair higher. Of course, the US inflation numbers will have a direct impact on the pair as well.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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