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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES MAY SPUR SPECULATION ABOUT A RATE HIKE

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair moved above short term resistance, mostly because a stronger retracement was needed taking into consideration the tremendous drop seen throughout last months. A report regarding German Industrial Production showed disappointing figures, slowing the pair’s ascension.

[Image: 2014.10.08-FOMC-Meting-Minutes-may-spur-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2660 was touched several times yesterday but the bulls lacked the strength to break it, a fact which shows the underlying strength of the bears and makes us believe that price will resume downwards motion if today resistance is not broken. The first support is located at 1.2580 while the next resistance (if 1.2660 is broken) sits at 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook

Europe doesn’t didn’t schedule any important news releases but the US Dollar will he highly affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are made public at 6:00 pm GMT. The document will contain insights into the reasons which influenced the members’ votes regarding monetary policy and interest rate but more importantly, it may contain hints about a future rate increase. Such hints would fuel speculation about the US Dollar’s next direction and would influence the pair’s movement in a spectacular fashion.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound slowly climbed above short term resistance. British Manufacturing Production disappointed but we attribute yesterday’s movement to trend exhaustion and to technical factors, not to fundamentals.

[Image: 2014.10.08-FOMC-Meting-Minutes-may-spur-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.6060 was broken but now an important confluence zone sits in front of rising prices. This zone is represented by the level at 1.6160 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; a move above both these types of resistance would show that bulls may be preparing to reverse the downtrend. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic or financial indicators for today and we expect mixed movement ahead of the FOMC release.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE THREATENED. WHAT IS THE ANSWER OF THE BEARS?

EUR/USD


Forex News: Trading was pretty slow ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the Dollar weakened considerably once the Minutes showed the Fed sees global economic slowdown as a threat to the US economic recovery.

[Image: 2014.10.09-Resistance-threatened.-What-i...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair quickly climbed at the time of the FOMC release and 1.2750 resistance was reached. Now price is trading above the 50 Period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while but this important level acts as a strong barrier. A break of 1.2750 would deal a big blow to the downtrend and we might see an extended move north. If price will have trouble breaking the level, the next destination is 1.2660 and the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The G20 Meetings start today and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 3:00 pm GMT in Washington DC. The main subject of the speech will be the latest European developments and, as always, volatility is expected and caution recommended because the Euro can be strongly affected by Draghi’s attitude.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound couldn’t break resistance before the FOMC release but Dollar weakness allowed the pair to move swiftly up and to break resistance.

[Image: 2014.10.09-Resistance-threatened.-What-i...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trying to move above 1.6160 after breaking 1.6060 in a decisive manner. The market perceived the Meeting Minutes as very bearish for the greenback so we might see more upwards movement today but overall we are still trading in a market with a strong Dollar. Bearish activity is not out of the question although the momentum is in favor of the bulls and we consider a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average a sign of underlying US Dollar strength which may lead to a touch of 1.6060.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate decision. The current value is 0.50% and an increase would add massive strength to the Pound; however, such an increase would be a tremendous surprise considering the fact that Bank of England didn’t offer any hints so far about a rate hike.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: CORRECTION OVER. DOWNTREND RESUMPTION AHEAD

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take price higher during the early stages of yesterday but the climb couldn’t be sustained and price returned below resistance. Mario Draghi’s dovish attitude and comments weakened the Euro further and added more fuel to the downside.

[Image: 2014.10.10-Correction-over.-Downtrend-re...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The move that started at 1.2500 is considered a bullish correction to the main downtrend and it looks like it may have ended. The Relative Strength Index reached overbought territory in a strong downtrend and bulls failed to keep price above 1.2750; these factors combined with the prevailing downtrend make us believe that today we will see a break of 1.2660 which is first potential support. If this occurs, the next level of interest is located at 1.2580.

Fundamental Outlook

At 6:45 am GMT the French Industrial Production change is released and a drop from last month’s 0.2% to -0.2% is expected. The indicator usually has low or medium impact on the Euro but nonetheless, better numbers can strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

As forecast, the Bank of England didn’t change the Interest Rate and the event went almost unnoticed by market participants. The bears dragged the pair lower yesterday after the bulls failed to touch major resistance.

[Image: 2014.10.10-Correction-over.-Downtrend-re...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but if a clear break occurs the next target will become 1.6060 support. A new move above 1.6160 would suggest that bulls have enough strength to take price into the major level at 1.6250; however the Relative Strength Index was close to overbought before yesterday’s drop and this increases the chances of a bigger move to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is -9.6B. Since this indicator represents the difference between imports and exports, higher values are beneficial for the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: US BANKS ARE CLOSED. IRREGULAR VOLATILITY EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: For almost the entire duration of Friday’s trading session the pair moved south, resuming the direction of the main trend. No major events took place and price direction was mainly influenced by technical factors.

[Image: 2014.10.13-US-Banks-are-closed.-Irregula...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below its 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the level at 1.2660, showing the underlying strength of the bears. We expect downside movement to continue today until 1.2580 is reached but price action might be slow due to the fact that US banks will be closed today. To the upside, 1.2660 will act as resistance if touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States celebrate Columbus Day and US Banks will be closed as a result. This may lead lo low volume and potentially irregular volatility. Europe didn’t schedule any important releases and overall we anticipate a slow day.


GBP/USD

Although Friday the US Dollar took the pair below short term support, later in the day the Pound managed to erase some of the losses and the day finished above support.

[Image: 2014.10.13-US-Banks-are-closed.-Irregula...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the support at 1.6060 couldn’t be broken and we can even see a four-hour candle with a long lower wick, a fact which shows rejection and suggests that today price may move higher. If this occurs, the moving average will be the first target and also the first point where the bulls may encounter resistance. A clean break of 1.6060 would determine additional sellers to join in.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule notable economic releases for today and US Banks are closed so we might experience a day driven completely by technical factors.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: TODAY’S HEADLINES – GERMAN ZEW AND UNITED KINGDOM’S INFLATION

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday Euro bulls managed to take price above first resistance although no major economic or financial indicators were released. The move was mainly technical and it’s not backed by strong fundamentals.

[Image: 2014.10.14-Todays-headlines-German-ZEW-a...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved above 1.2660 resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we can notice the fact that momentum is starting to become neutral as the Moving average is almost flat on a four-hour chart. On an hourly chart we can see that yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at the psychological level of 1.2700 and this will be the first barrier in front of rising prices; a break would make 1.2750 the next target while a bounce lower would take us back into 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, with an expected value of 0.2, a major drop from last month’s 6.9. This survey is based on the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts and acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. Under normal circumstances, a higher than expected number strengthens the Euro and takes the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The pair’s movement was rather mixed yesterday and we saw the bulls take price higher just to be reversed in the second part of the day. No major news came out and direction was influenced by technical factors.

[Image: 2014.10.14-Todays-headlines-German-ZEW-a...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart it’s clearly visible how the pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now it’s struggling to break 1.6060 support. Although the bears still have a lot of steam left, the downtrend is definitely weaker than before so it’s not very clear if this level can be broken and the answer will probably be offered by the British inflation numbers released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Consumer Price Index is released today at 8:30 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation and although the current value is not a reason for concern, if inflation will continue to drop, this will become a worrying issue. Today’s expected change is 1.4%, lower than last month’s 1.5%; if this forecast comes true we might see lower prices on the back of Pound weakness.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS BACK IN CONTROL. MARIO DRAGHI’S COMMENTS CAN CHANGE THE TIDE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s selloff was triggered by a surprisingly low value of the German ZEW survey which is a gauge of optimism among professional investors and analysts. The actual value was -3.6 while the forecast was 0.2 and the Euro weakened as a result.

[Image: 2014.10.15-Bears-back-in-control.-Mario-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Following a touch of 1.2750 resistance, price bounced lower and maintained that direction for the most part of yesterday’s trading session. Although the latest momentum belongs to the bears, the resistance at 1.2660 is not broken so we might see some sort of rejection here before price will break the mentioned level. Important events take place today and the pair’s direction will be heavily influenced by them.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will speak twice today: the first speech is scheduled at 7:00 am GMT at a Conference organized by the European Central Bank and the second speech takes place at 6:00 pm GMT at the opening of the European Cultural Days 2014, in Frankfurt. Both events can have a high impact on the Euro but it all depends on what Draghi will say and what his attitude will be.

The United States also scheduled an important event: the release of the Retail Sales. Economic activity is highly influenced by the retail sector and usually a higher than expected value for this indicator strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated change is -0.1%, a drop from last month’s 0.6%.


GBP/USD

The British CPI disappointed in a tremendous manner, posting a reading of 1.2% while last month’s value was 1.5% and a drop to just 1.4% was forecast. The Pound suffered from this drop and a huge selloff started.

[Image: 2014.10.15-Bears-back-in-control.-Mario-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook


After breaking 1.6060 support decisively, the pair tumbled directly to the next support at 1.5900. The Relative Strength Index reached its 30 level but it doesn’t show a severe oversold condition; however, some sort of pause is likely to be seen here, considering that price traveled too far, too fast. The fundamental scene is packed today so price action will be highly influenced by news releases.

Fundamental Outlook

British employment data is announced today at 8:30 am GMT in the form of the Claimant Count Change. The indicator shows the monthly change in the number of unemployed people and higher numbers suggest economic contraction, weakening the Pound. Today’s forecast is -34.2K while last month’s number was -37.2K. Keep an eye on the US events as those will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY TONING DOWN AFTER YESTERDAY’S STORM

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action offered us a huge surprise in the form of a 250 pips rise followed by a massive drop of more than 120 pips. The disappointing numbers posted by the US Retail Sales triggered US Dollar weakness and the initial climb, while the move south that followed is mainly attributed to technical reasons.

[Image: 2014.10.16-Volatility-toning-down-after-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Under normal circumstances the massive climb could bring in more buyers but the long wick of the candle signifies rejection and makes the picture unclear. For the moment we recommend caution as the pair’s next direction is uncertain. Yesterday’s high at 1.2886 will act as the first resistance while the level at 1.2750 could provide some support but can also turn into resistance if price moves below it. In this latter case, 1.2660 will become first support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released and expected to decrease from last month’s 22.5 to 19.9. This is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district and higher than expected numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

British unemployment data was worse than anticipated but the main event of the day was without a doubt the US Retail Sales release which triggered tremendous volatility.

[Image: 2014.10.16-Volatility-toning-down-after-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair touched 1.6060 resistance and immediately dropped, creating a major whipsaw. For the time being, the downtrend is still in place as we don’t have a higher high but a lower low was printed. For today we expect the pair to remain between 1.6060 resistance and 1.5900 support, but given the latest strong movement, a breakout is possible as well.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so focus will be shifted towards the United States and the technical aspect.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: MIXED MOVEMENT AHEAD OF YELLEN’S SPEECH AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair still had a lot of volatility but not as high as the day before and we saw price fall below main support just to return above it soon after. US economic data came out slightly better than anticipated but we couldn’t see major impact at the time.

[Image: 2014.10.17-Mixed-movement-ahead-of-Yelle...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2750 was pierced but price soon returned above it and this makes the high at 1.2886 the next target for the pair. To the downside, the zone around 1.2750 will still offer some support but a clear close of a four hour candle below it will make 1.2660 the immediate target. We have two important US events today and these will probably determine the day’s bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today at 12:30 pm GMT at a Conference held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. As always, her speeches can be a reason for sharp moves and caution is recommended. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually a person confident in the economic situation of the country will spend more. Today’s expected number is 84.3, a small decrease from last month’s 84.6 and lower numbers will have a negative impact on the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound tried one more time to break support but the bulls took control yesterday and the pair reached resistance once again, so it looks like the disappointing value of the US Retail Sales continues to have a bad influence on the US Dollar.

[Image: 2014.10.17-Mixed-movement-ahead-of-Yelle...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

If the level at 1.6060 can be broken decisively today, we are likely to see a climb close to 1.6160 and the downtrend will be severely weakened. A break of 1.6060 would also mean that price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which will then offer dynamic support and this would shift the balance on favor of the bulls. Throughout the day, keep an eye for any possible overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index because this would increase the chances of bearish price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major news releases today so price direction will be influenced by technical factors and the US events.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: A RANGING BEGINNING OF THE WEEK?

EUR/USD


Forex News: A survey released Friday by the University of Michigan showed that confidence among American consumers has increased and this brought the pair lower in the second part of the day, on the back of US Dollar strength.

[Image: 2014.10.20-A-ranging-beginning-of-the-week-pic1.png]

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is trading close to the support at 1.2750, above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; because no major news releases are scheduled today and Mondays are usually slow days, we believe that price will not break the two forms of support mentioned above. We expect ranging movement above and below 1.2750, capped to the downside by the Moving Average. Resistance is located in the zone around 1.2835 – 1.2845 but we don’t anticipate a move above the zone.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Bundesbank Monthly Report is released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the day’s only notable event. The report contains a detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions as seen by the German Central Bank and can strengthen the Euro if it is more hawkish than expected.


GBP/USD

After a brief dip below support, the pair ranged above 1.6060 and overall the day didn’t offer strong moves or important breaks of S/R levels.

[Image: 2014.10.20-A-ranging-beginning-of-the-week-pic2.png]

Technical Outlook

Today we expect another encounter with 1.6060 support which in combination with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will create a confluence zone. Since the fundamental scene is pretty calm today, we believe the pair will trade between 1.6060 support and 1.6160 resistance, but a break of any of these levels will most likely trigger an expended move in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for the day, so the technical aspect will determine the day’s bias.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE-OR-BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair had a slow start of the week and price remained above support but movement was mostly ranging and a lot of indecision was present.

[Image: 2014.10.21-Bounce-or-break-scenarios-in-play-pic1.png]

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we have a few candles with long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, a thing which suggests indecision regarding the next direction. The support at 1.2750 is holding for the moment and price bounced on the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which indicate a potential climb into 1.2835 resistance. On the other hand, a break of 1.2750 would open the door for a move towards 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales are released, with an anticipated change from the previous 5.05M to 5.11M. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the last month and an increase usually suggests economic expansion, hence a potentially stronger US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair also had a slow day yesterday, but movement was mostly bullish and price moved north, in close vicinity of resistance. No major news came out and the technical aspect held center stage.

[Image: 2014.10.21-Bounce-or-break-scenarios-in-play-pic2.png]

Technical Outlook

As the pair is approaching 1.6160 resistance, a “bounce or break” scenario begins to develop: a bullish break would probably take the pair into 1.6250 resistance while a bounce lower would make 1.6060 the next target. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition but it is moving close to the 70 level and this could make further bullish advances more difficult.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Office for National Statistics will announce at 8:30 am GMT the Public Sector Net Borrowing. A negative number indicates a surplus while a positive figure shows deficit so the Pound would strengthen if a lower number will be posted today. The forecast is 9.3B while last month’s value was 10.9B.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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