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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESIDENT TESTIFIES – VOLATILITY ALMOST GUARANTEED

EUR/USD


Forex News: For almost the entire duration of Friday’s trading session the US Dollar gained and the pair moved south, ending the week below support. No major news came out but Euro weakness combined with Dollar strength triggered a 100 pip drop.

[Image: 2014.09.22-ECB-President-testifies-volat...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The bears took back control of the pair and drove price all the way down to 1.2860. The level was broken Friday but we are likely to see moves above it today, with the first resistance being represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. To the downside, support is located at 1.2750 but we don’t expect this level to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify on monetary policy and this will be the day’s main event. He will speak in Brussels, before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee and his attitude will be closely watched by traders around the world; high volatility is expected and caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound gave back some of the previous gains and dropped for more than 200 pips Friday after climbing against the Dollar on the back of the Scottish referendum vote.

[Image: 2014.09.22-ECB-President-testifies-volat...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The bears’ underlying strength was made clear Friday and the break of 1.6460 resistance couldn’t be sustained by the buyers, a fact which indicates that more downside movement will follow. The first barrier in front of the sellers is located at 1.6250 support and today we are likely to see a touch of this level. However, we don’t expect a break or any other major developments as the day lacks British economic and financial releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Existing Home Sales are released at 2:00 pm GMT with an expected value of 5.21M. Higher numbers suggest a thriving economy and can add to the strength of the US Dollar. As already mentioned, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases today thus price action will be driven by the American events and by technical factors.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD


Forex News: Mario Draghi’s speech didn’t create the expected volatility although he mentioned the fact that additional stimulus may be implemented if the current measures are not enough to fend off the risk of deflation.

[Image: 2014.09.23-European-manufacturing-data-i...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The comments made by the ECB President weakened the Euro and the pair bounced lower after successfully testing 1.2860 from below. The next major target remains the support at 1.2750 and for the time being resistance is represented by 1.2860. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading and price is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so for now the downtrend is intact.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Flash Manufacturing PMI is released today at 7:00 am GMT and expected to change to 47.1. Half an hour later the German indicator with the same name will come out with an anticipated value of 51.3. Both indicators are gauges of optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and better than expected numbers will most likely strengthen the Euro since these surveys are also leading indicators of economic health.


GBP/USD

The Pound showed some bullish behavior yesterday but for the most part it traded in a range, without any major developments taking place.

[Image: 2014.09.23-European-manufacturing-data-i...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

We are still expecting a touch of 1.6250 from above and even a potential break as the bears still have a lot of underlying strength. If the pair will bounce higher once this potential touch occurs, we are likely to see an extended move north, probably into the zone around 1.6460, but such a distance will not be traveled in one day unless a surprising event takes place.

Fundamental Outlook

The main Pound affecting event is the release of the Mortgage Approvals by the British Bankers’ Association, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator offers insights into the health of the British house-market because usually a home is purchased with a mortgage, thus higher numbers than the forecast 42.9K will be beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: BEARS RENEW THE DOWNTREND AND THREATEN KEY SUPPORT

EUR/USD


Forex News: The pair tumbled during the first part of yesterday without any apparent reason other than the technical aspect and later in the day, the surprisingly better value of the US New Home Sales added more steam to the US Dollar, renewing the downtrend.

[Image: 2014.09.25-Bears-renew-the-downtrend-and...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and quickly moved below 1.2860. More sellers joined once the US housing data was released and now the pair is most likely headed for the key support at 1.2750. Once this level is reached we are likely to see a retracement in the form of a move north or at least some ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the American Durable Goods Orders scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. These types of goods (with a life expectancy or at least 3 years) are usually purchased in times of economic expansion and an increased value suggests that people are confident in the overall economic situation. It also means that producers will have to increase their activity to satisfy demand. The expected change is -17.7%, a huge drop from the previous 22.6%; such a drastic value would most likely weaken the greenback.


GBP/USD

The bears made their presence known yesterday and managed to take the pair lower, a behavior mostly attributed  to the better than expected value of the US New Home Sales.

[Image: 2014.09.25-Bears-renew-the-downtrend-and...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average which is the first barrier for the bears before 1.6250 can be reached. If the pair will move below this short term dynamic support, we are likely to see an extended move lower; otherwise the bulls will take price into the resistance located at 1.6460.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Realized Sales survey which is based on opinions of wholesalers and retailers regarding the current level of sales volume. The anticipated value is 34, a drop from last month’s 37 and we may see Pound weakness if this forecast comes true; however, the indicator usually has a medium impact.

Later in the day, at 12:40 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak at a Conference in Wales. Huge moves are not expected but the chances of sudden, strong moves increase whenever a head of a Central Bank speaks so caution is recommended.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – THE LAST RELEASE OF A VOLATILE WEEK

EUR/USD


Forex News: The bears scored a major victory and broke key support yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength generated by a positive forecast made by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Corp. and Morgan Stanley based on speculation of a near-future rate increase.

[Image: 2014.09.26-American-Gross-Domestic-Produ...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.2750 is indeed an important development which will probably bring in more sellers but for the time being, the pair is likely to show some sideways movement or even small retracements to the upside. For today we expect price to remain rather close to 1.2750, moving above and below it, with the first downside barrier being yesterday’s low at 1.2696.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event is the release of the Final version of the American Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The expected change is 4.6% compared with the previous 4.2% and although this version has the lowest impact out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), strong movement might occur if the value will surprise in any way.


GBP/USD

US Dollar strength took the pair slightly lower but our predicted target at 1.6250 was not touched and throughout the day price action was mixed and mostly ranging.

[Image: 2014.09.26-American-Gross-Domestic-Produ...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.6250 support is very close to current price. This makes us still believe that 1.6250 will be touched today or in the near future; if the bulls can take the pair higher, this level is a place where they could show their willingness. A break of the level mentioned above would suggest that lower prices will follow and the next support will be located at 1.6160.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news announcements and price action will be influenced by the American GDP and by technical factors.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION DETERMINES TODAY’S BIAS

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday the bears were in control for the entire day and managed to break minor support by taking the pair to new lows. The Final version of the American GDP came out with the anticipated value which was better than the previous, a fact which contributed to US Dollar strength.

[Image: 2014.09.29-German-inflation-determines-t...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the downtrend is at full strength, the Relative Strength Index is in oversold territory on hourly, four-hour and daily charts, a thing which makes a bullish pullback very probable. The zone around 1.2695 will probably act as resistance while support is located at 1.2660 and today’s direction will be mainly influenced by German inflation data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be released; this is the main inflation gauge for the German economy and has a hefty influence on European inflation. Today’s expected change is -0.1%, lower than last month’s 0.0% and this negative change will probably weaken the Euro.


GBP/USD

After a brief bullish move which found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair dropped for the rest of the day and the bears finished last week in control.

[Image: 2014.09.29-German-inflation-determines-t...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

Our predicted target at 1.6250 was reached and now a bounce-or-break scenario is in effect (for the time being 1.6250 is not considered clearly broken). A break of the level would make 1.6160 the next destination while a bounce higher will probably find resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index has reached the 30 level on an hourly chart but on a four hour chart it still has room to move down so we cannot consider this a clear oversold condition.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will reveal the value of the Net Lending to Individuals today at 8:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the change in value of credit approved towards consumers and usually higher values suggest optimism. Today’s expected value is 3.1B, a drop from last month’s 3.4B.

 
Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
FOREX NEWS: UNDERLYING US DOLLAR STRENGTH DRIVES PRICE LOWER

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro bulls managed to take the pair higher yesterday on the back of better than expected German inflation. Support was briefly touched but no serious attempts to break it were made.

[Image: 2014.09.30-Underlying-US-Dollar-strength...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 sits in front of the pair’s descent but the US Dollar continues to have respectable strength and we believe that a break of the mentioned level will occur in the near future. The downtrend is intact and going strong so yesterday’s bullish move must be regarded as a simple retracement or pullback against the trend.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s CPI Flash Estimate is today’s main event for the Euro; this indicator is the main gauge of inflation and as we know, inflation is a major concern of the ECB’s because the current level is considered too low. The time of release is 09:00 am GMT and the expected value is 0.3%, a drop from last month’s 0.4%, a fact which will affect negatively the Euro if it comes true.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey is released. The forecast is 92.2, a slight decrease from last month’s 92.4. Since confidence among consumers is closely correlated with consumer spending, a higher number for today’s release will most likely generate more Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The Net Lending to Individuals was close to the anticipated value and the release didn’t create a lot of movement. For the entire day the pair remained below 1.6250 and movement was ranging.

[Image: 2014.09.30-Underlying-US-Dollar-strength...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Although the bears weren’t very convincing yesterday and the pair mostly ranged near 1.6250, we anticipate a more serious descent today. The US Dollar is surrounded by a positive sentiment lately, gaining against almost all of its counterparts and from a technical point of view, 1.6250 combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone which acts as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Current Account is announced today at 08:30 am GMT and it’s anticipated to change from the previous -18.5B to -16.9B. The indicator represents the difference between imported and exported goods and higher values suggest that currency demand is increasing. Price action today will be influenced by the American Consumer Confidence as well.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: NEW LOWS REACHED. THE PROBABILITY OF RETRACEMENTS HAS INCREASED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro was negatively affected yesterday by inflation that continues to decline and this fact, coupled with underlying US Dollar strength, generated another strong move south.

[Image: 2014.10.01-New-lows-reached.-The-probabi...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2660 was broken decisively yesterday and the Euro is heading for a 2 year low against the Dollar. It is clear that bears are in control of the pair but a bullish pullback against the main trend is expected, considering the fact that the downtrend is overextended and the Relative Strength Index is trading in oversold territory on more than one time frame. The first support is located at 1.2570 (yesterday’s low), while potential resistance sits at 1.2660.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing will release their version of the US Non Farm Employment Change which is anticipated to remain almost unchanged (206K) from last month’s 204K. This privately owned company releases an early employment report which tries to mimic the Government data which will be announced Friday and the impact differs from month to month but higher numbers are considered beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Current Account posted a disappointing value, weakening the Pound and driving the pair lower, in close vicinity of support.

[Image: 2014.10.01-New-lows-reached.-The-probabi...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price is capped to the upside by the resistance at 1.6250 while to the downside support sits at 1.6160. The pair’s last encounter with this support generated a strong bullish move and the same is possible now, but a lot depends on the British Manufacturing data and American Employment. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme reading but the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled downwards, increasing the chances of another push lower.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT but the anticipated change is very small: 52.6 from last month’s 52.5. This is a survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers lead to a stronger Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: THE MARKET PREPARES FOR THE ECB PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was difficult to trade as the ADP Employment data posted better than expected values, causing the US Dollar to strengthen but later in the day it was weakened by a worse than expected value of a Manufacturing survey.

[Image: 2014.10.02-The-market-prepares-for-the-E...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price moved up and down yesterday without clear direction but we can notice the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is still providing good resistance on an hourly chart. It seems like bearish momentum is starting to fade away or at least to decrease in intensity but this can be easily changed by today’s ECB decision regarding the interest rate. The main levels to watch are 1.2660 as resistance and 1.2570 as support but the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:45 am GMT the European Central Bank will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current value of 0.05% but we saw before that surprises can happen so we recommend caution at the time of the release and during the Press Conference which follows 45 minutes later. During the Conference, President Mario Draghi will read a prepared speech and afterwards will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the Press Conference is known to generate strong volatility and often irregular movement, depending on the President’s answers and attitude.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing data disappointed and the Pound weakened as a result but later in the day price climbed to touch resistance.

[Image: 2014.10.02-The-market-prepares-for-the-E...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The touch of 1.6250 resistance resulted in a bounce lower and overall we had a day which was tough to trade on the lower time frames. The important levels for today still remain 1.6160 as support (which was touched yesterday but price couldn’t break it) and 1.6250 as resistance (which combined with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average creates a confluence zone).

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT with an expected decrease from last month’s 64.0 to 63.7. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers from the Construction sector, regarding the current business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus a higher value is usually beneficial for the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: AMERICAN NON FARM PAYROLLS SET THE STAGE FOR A VOLATILE FRIDAY

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB Press Conference and Mario Draghi’s attitude generated mixed reactions and a lot of whipsaws. The interest rate remained unchanged and for the time being resistance is holding.

[Image: 2014.10.03-American-Non-Farm-Payrolls-se...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The irregular movement generated by Mario Draghi’s speech took price above 1.2660 resistance but soon after, the Euro weakened and the pair returned below the mentioned level. If the bears will take back control, this is a good place to do so and the first target will be 1.2570. Important US Employment data is released today and this will strongly affect the Dollar, making the technical aspect secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the most important American jobs related indicator is released: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). The report tracks changes in the number of employed people and higher numbers suggest a thriving economy; an increase is also indicative of future growth in the retail sales sector. Today’s release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 216K, a hefty rise from last month’s 142K.


GBP/USD

Although British Construction data posted a better value than expected, US Dollar strength took the pair lower for almost the entire day and short term support was broken yesterday.

[Image: 2014.10.03-American-Non-Farm-Payrolls-se...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The current move is likely to extend into the zone surrounding 1.6060 now that previous support was broken and may turn into resistance (1.6160). The pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, without being oversold so we are likely to see lower prices especially if the American NFP will show a good reading.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is 59.1, a drop from last month’s 60.5. If the forecast comes true or lower numbers are posted, the Pound will be negatively affected and the pair may descend further.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE POUND FOR MANUFACTURING DATA RELEASE

EUR/USD


Forex News: Overall the Euro had a bullish day although the German Factory Orders came out with a disappointing value. Price action was mainly affected by the technical aspect and the bears still have a lot of underlying strength.

[Image: 2014.10.07-Focus-shifts-towards-the-Poun...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition indicated by the Relative Strength Index materialized in a bullish pullback against the main trend. However, we consider this just normal market behavior as the downtrend is intact and further descent is likely to occur during the days to come. The current level at 1.2570 may become resistance if we see a bounce lower and the first support is located at 1.2440.

Fundamental Outlook


Today Europe and the United States didn’t schedule any major economic releases thus price direction will be influenced mainly by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair had a slow day, a fact also generated by the lackluster fundamental scene. Neither support nor resistance was threatened but price retraced slightly higher.

[Image: 2014.10.07-Focus-shifts-towards-the-Poun...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price action was slow but bullish nonetheless and this is a fact which we expect to change today and price to make another attempt to reach the important support located at 1.5900. It’s possible to see a touch of 1.6060 before price will make a run for support, considering the position of the Relative Strength Index which is coming out of oversold territory.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is released at 8:30 am GMT with an expected change of 0.2% compared with last month’s 0.3%. Considering that manufacturing is an important part of United Kingdom’s economy, higher values can lead to a stronger Pound.

At 2:00 pm GMT an estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. Last month’s value was 0.6% and anything above that will most likely strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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