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GDMFX - Daily News
FOREX NEWS: ECB SURPRISES THE MARKET WITH ANOTHER RATE CUT. FOCUS SHIFTS ON NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB unexpectedly decided to cut the interest rate to 0.05% (previously 0.15%) and Mario Draghi announced that a form of Quantitative Easing will be introduced in order to stimulate the economy. He also mentioned that other measures might be implemented if needed.

[Image: 2014.09.05-ECB-surprises-the-market-with...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The surprise offered by the ECB drastically weakened the Euro and the effect was a massive drop of almost 200 pips. The selloff broke 1.3100 and brought the pair into the psychological support at 1.3000, solidifying the control of the bears and renewing the downtrend. Today’s direction will be heavily affected by the US Non Farm Payrolls but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a small bounce followed by a trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event will be the release of the Non Farm Payrolls which is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT; the expected number is 226K, an increase from last month’s 209K. Higher numbers show that more jobs were created and usually this strengthens the greenback because employment is closely correlated with consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the economy. The NFP release is known to be a huge market mover thus caution is recommended if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England left the rate unchanged and the event didn’t have a huge impact on the pair’s movement but US Dollar strength generated a clear break of 1.6460 support.

[Image: 2014.09.05-ECB-surprises-the-market-with...24x481.png]

Technical Outlook

The downtrend is resumed and 1.6460 is clearly broken. This level will probably turn into resistance and will reject any bullish moves that may come close to it. The first major support is now located at 1.6250 (visible on a Daily chart) and the Relative Strength Index continues to move in oversold territory, a fact which favors moves to the north in the form of small retracements. The day’s direction will be heavily influenced by the American NFP release which will overshadow the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release major economic indicators today and all eyes will be turned towards the American employment report.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
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FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM. THE MARKET SLOWS DOWN

EUR/USD


Forex News: Friday’s price action was heavily influenced by the worse than expected value posted by the American Non Farm Payrolls, a fact which allowed the pair to climb. However, the Euro bulls weren’t strong enough to sustain the move and some of the gains were erased.

[Image: 2014.09.08-The-calm-after-the-storm.-The...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The last two days of last week were heavily influenced by the fundamental environment and the moves generated were huge. Such movement is often followed by sideways price action and we believe the pair will range between the low at 1.2920 and the potential resistance at 1.3000. Usually Mondays are slow days unless major news comes out and today the schedule is pretty light.

Fundamental Outlook

The only noteworthy indicator released today is the German Trade Balance which shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is 17.3B compared with last month’s 16.2B and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Euro but the indicator has a mild impact on price action unless surprising values are posted. The time of the release is 6:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound briefly gained on the back of the worse than expected value of the US employment report but overall Friday was slow compared to the previous days.

[Image: 2014.09.08-The-calm-after-the-storm.-The...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

First major support is located at 1.6250 and will probably attract price like a magnet since it is very close and it is considered a key level for medium term price action. The first lower barrier is represented by Friday’s low located at 1.6280 which is considered minor support. We expect a rather slow day based on the fact that no important economic or financial indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, the fundamental scene is calm and price action will be governed by the technical aspect.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: THE POUND DROPS AS SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE BECOMES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY

EUR/USD


Forex News: The German Trade Balance showed improved numbers but overall the day lacked strong movement and the pair traded inside a 30 pip range for almost the entire duration of the day.

[Image: 2014.09.09-The-Pound-drops-as-Scottish-i...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The day ahead is likely to be characterized by ranging movement, similar to the one experienced yesterday. The pair is capped to the downside by the low located at 1.2920 and we might see another attempt to break it but the Relative Strength Index is making its way up, coming from oversold territory and this suggests that price may revisit the zone around 1.3000 as a stronger bullish retracement is still anticipated. However, keep in mind that control belongs to the bears and a break of the low can easily occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The French Trade Balance is announced at 6:45 am GMT. The indicator shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods but it is known to have a mild impact on price action. The expected value is -5.0B while the previous was -5.4B and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD

A poll regarding a potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom showed that for the first time the number of people who are pro-independence exceeded the number of people who still want to be a part of the United Kingdom.

[Image: 2014.09.09-The-Pound-drops-as-Scottish-i...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The poll result triggered a massive downside gap which made the pair open below the key level at 1.6250. A potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom will severely damage the Pound and until the 18th of September (the day when Scottish people will express their view through a referendum), we are likely to see irregular and hard to predict price action. For now the first minor support is located at 1.6100 while potential resistance sits in the 1.6250 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech in Liverpool. Considering the latest developments, this speech is likely to have a higher impact than usual but it all depends on his attitude and matters discussed. At the same time the British Manufacturing Production change is announced and the expected value is 0.3%, same as last month. Because Manufacturing is an important part of the entire British Industrial Production, today’s release is considered a high-impact one and higher values will most likely strengthen the Pound.

At 2:00 pm GMT an unofficial estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. This estimated value is calculated using statistical projection techniques and has an impact similar to the one of the official release. The previous estimate was 0.6% and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AS RETRACEMENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED

EUR/USD


Forex News: The economic scene lacked major developments and the pair moved lower just to return higher later in the day. Yesterday’s low was broken before the bullish move and a new yearly low was printed.

[Image: 2014.09.10-Bullish-pressure-mounts-as-re...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing the recently broken level of 1.2920 but the downtrend doesn’t show signs of slowing down thus there’s a high probability that price will bounce lower, turning the previous support into resistance. The next major support is located at 1.2750 (better seen on a Daily chart) and the first resistance sits at 1.3000.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead has a lackluster news scene for the Euro and US Dollar and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Mark Carney’s speech was postponed for a few hours yesterday but the bullish effect created by the Governor’s attitude was soon dampened by the sellers’ pressure.

[Image: 2014.09.10-Bullish-pressure-mounts-as-re...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above and below the level at 1.6100 and the day was pretty volatile but neither side made any major advances. The Relative Strength Index continues to trade deep into oversold territory and the possibility of bullish moves has increased but the Pound cannot seem to recover, mostly due to the Scottish independence issue which continues to be a major influence. Minor support sits at 1.6060 while first resistance is located at 1.6160.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor alongside members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on economic outlook and inflation today at 1:45 pm GMT, before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. Their speeches will most likely have a strong impact on the Pound but the direction will be determined by their answers and attitude. Volatility will probably be high and caution is recommended.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
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FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM RESISTANCE HOLDS. THE PROBABILITY OF NEW LOWS INCREASES

EUR/USD


Forex News: Yesterday the pair showed mixed price action with both the bulls and the bears battling for control. No major indicators were released and price couldn’t break minor resistance but the sellers didn’t manage to threaten support either.

[Image: 2014.09.11-Short-term-resistance-holds.-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook


Price action established the zone around 1.2960 as short term resistance and this will be the first barrier in front of higher prices. Yesterday we saw another rejection off of this level but further bullish movement is not out of the question and a break of the mentioned level will most likely bring in additional buyers. To the downside, the first level of interest sits at 1.2860 and a break would show that bears still have some steam left and that price will continue to move south, towards 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook


The day’s direction will be influenced by Mario Draghi’s speech scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. The ECB President will speak in Milan at the Eurofi Financial Forum 2014 and any reference regarding the current Euro Zone situation will most likely trigger a response in the market. Keep in mind that the relatively late hour of the speech may be a reason why impact could be mild; however, if Draghi’s position will be straightforward, the market impact will be strong so we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

After a touch of support, the pair headed north yesterday on the back of a hawkish attitude shown by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney during the Inflation Report Hearings.

[Image: 2014.09.11-Short-term-resistance-holds.-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook


Although we had some bullish action yesterday, the pair didn’t manage to break the short term resistance located at 1.6160. This might be a sign that downside movement is next, aiming for 1.6060 support, but we must note the position of the Relative Strength Index which is now coming out of oversold territory for the first time in a long period, a fact which favors the bulls. However, bearish price action is anticipated, considering the strong downtrend the pair is in.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for the day so price direction will be influenced by the technical factors.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: TODAY’S HEADLINE – THE AMERICAN RETAIL SALES

EUR/USD


Forex News: The Euro had a bullish day yesterday but price remained between support and resistance for almost the entire duration of the trading session.

[Image: 2014.09.12-Todays-headline-the-American-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Today we expect a break of either the resistance at 1.2960 or the support at 1.2860 but the direction will be mainly influenced by the outcome of the American Retail Sales which will have a strong impact on the greenback. Major support sits at 1.2750 and we expect this level to be touched in the near future but not necessarily today.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, the American Retail Sales are released today and the outcome could influence the US Dollar heavily. The scheduled time is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.3%, better than last month’s 0.0%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of the economy and the release is considered a major market mover; at the same time, the Core version of this indicator (which excludes automobiles from calculation) is released. For both versions, higher values normally strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The Pound continues to be heavily influenced by speculation regarding Scottish independence and yesterday we saw bullish movement on the back of a new poll which showed that more people wish that Scotland remains a part of the United Kingdom.

[Image: 2014.09.12-Todays-headline-the-American-...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Lately the technical aspect was overshadowed by the Scottish independence issue and this is likely to be a reason for speculation until the referendum result will be posted next week. For the time being, we can see some sort of rejection off of the resistance at 1.6750 and bearish divergence is present, so we anticipate a move lower which will probably find support at 1.6160 but a break of the current level could generate additional movement north.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major news releases for the Pound today, thus price direction will be influenced by the US events and the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND REMAINS INTACT AS RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Retail Sales didn’t have a major impact on the US Dollar although better than expected values were posted. Friday was mostly controlled by the Euro bulls but short term resistance couldn’t be broken.

[Image: 2014.09.15-Downtrend-remains-intact-as-r...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Lately the level at 1.2960 is becoming more important because we already saw three failed attempts to break it. Last week ended with price very close to the mentioned level and today we expect a move away from it, possibly to the downside since we are still in a clear downtrend and the bears still have underlying strength. The year’s low at 1.2860 will be the first target but we don’t expect it to be reached within a day; on the other hand, a clear bullish break of 1.2960 will invalidate our scenario, making 1.3000 the pair’s next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The scene is pretty calm today, with the only notable indicator being the US Industrial Production released at 1:15 pm GMT. The indicator shows the change in the value of total industrial output compared with the previous month but for today’s release no change is anticipated from the previous 0.4%. Usually, higher than expected values are beneficial for the greenback and push the pair lower.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair moved in a narrow range close to the level at 1.6250 and no substantial advances were made by either side as the American Retail Sales failed to trigger strong moves.

[Image: 2014.09.15-Downtrend-remains-intact-as-r...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Price action reached a 50 period Exponential Moving Average which combined with the level at 1.6250 creates a confluent resistance zone that will be tough to break. This increases the chances of bearish price action for the day but a move above the confluence zone will probably trigger additional bullish momentum. First support sits at 1.6160 but a touch of this level is less probable to happen today even if price will resume downwards movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news releases for today and price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect and by the American release mentioned earlier.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: FOMC CLUSTER OF EVENTS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG MOVEMENT

EUR/USD


Forex News: The German ZEW survey showed that optimism among professional investors and analysts increased but the value was still lower than the previous month and price ranged for the most part of the day.

[Image: 2014.09.17-FOMC-cluster-of-events-sets-t...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The pair is still trading very close the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance so the downtrend remains intact for the time being. However, the bearish momentum slowed down considerably and moves to the upside are possible but the day’s direction will be influenced by the afternoon US events and the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Consumer Price Index is released but no change is expected from last month’s 0.1%; however, higher values can benefit the US Dollar and take the pair lower. At 6:00 pm GMT a cluster of American events will most likely shake the market: the US Federal Funds Rate, the FOMC Rate Statement and Economic Projections, followed half an hour later by a FOMC Press Conference. Caution is recommended during these events as direction will depend on their outcome.


GBP/USD

The British CPI declined as analysts predicted, weakening the Pound, but later during yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar declined and the Pound erased all losses, managing even to climb higher than the opening of the day.

[Image: 2014.09.17-FOMC-cluster-of-events-sets-t...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb was mostly based on US Dollar weakness rather than Pound strength and the major resistance at 1.6250 is still not broken decisively so the picture remains fuzzy until we see a clear move above resistance, followed by a re-test of the broken level. Keep in mind that yesterday the pair almost touched 1.6160 support and immediately bounced higher, a fact which shows bull strength. Just like in the case of the Euro, today’s price direction will be heavily influenced by the fundamental side.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Claimant Count Change is released today at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the change in the number of jobless people who apply for social help related to their unemployed condition and lower numbers than the anticipated -29.7K are usually beneficial for the Pound. At the same time a breakdown of the latest MPC votes on the interest rate will be released, showing the members’ position regarding a future rate change. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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FOREX NEWS: SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE VOTE – AN EVENT WITH HISTORICAL IMPLICATIONS

EUR/USD


Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of Yellen’s hawkish comments as she noted that economy is continuing to make progress towards goals but the FOMC outlook didn’t offer too many surprises and movement was far from smooth on the lower time frames.

[Image: 2014.09.18-Scottish-Independence-Vote-An...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

It seems like the bears are gathering strength for another push towards the support at 1.2860. Although 1.2960 was briefly broken and 1.3000 was almost touched, the bulls couldn’t sustain the move and this shows their lack of power, thus increasing the chances of more downside movement. The day ahead is full of market-shaking events and a prediction based solely on technical factors cannot be very accurate.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Central Bank will announce today the Targeted LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Option) which is the amount of money the Central Bank will create and loan to European banks. This is the first month of the program and the effects are hard to anticipate since market participants still don’t know exactly what is too much or too little, thus we recommend caution for this release. The scheduled time is 10:15 am GMT.

At 12:45 pm GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at a Conference in Washington DC but the effects are likely to be mild considering that she will speak via satellite and audience questions are not expected. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is announced at 2:00 pm GMT and is expected to drop from the previous 28.0 to 22.8, a fact which would weaken the US Dollar and drive the pair higher.


GBP/USD

Better than expected unemployment data helped the Pound climb during the first part of yesterday but the US events brought the pair back down, erasing the previous gains.

[Image: 2014.09.18-Scottish-Independence-Vote-An...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After yesterday’s initial climb above 1.6250 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair returned to the broken zone and this type of price action can have two outcomes. A move below the mentioned zone would suggest downtrend continuation and possibly a touch of 1.6160 support, while a bounce higher means that the strength of the bears is starting to fade and the Pound is ready to recover.

Fundamental Outlook


Today the Scottish people will express their opinion regarding Scottish Independence through a vote. Irregular movement is anticipated throughout the day because a potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom would have tremendous historical implications and would drastically weaken the Pound. It is uncertain when the vote results will come out and a high level of caution is recommended.

The British Retail Sales come out at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to increase by 0.4% while last month’s change was 0.1%. This would strengthen the Pound but the market will be affected by the Scottish vote which may overshadow any other events.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
Thanks given by:
FOREX NEWS: BULLS MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN BY THREATENING RESISTANCE

EUR/USD


Forex News: After an unsuccessful attempt to break support, the pair bounced higher and continued to move in this direction for the entire day. The LTRO value was set at 82.6 Billion Euros but the time of the release was changed, taking traders by surprise.

[Image: 2014.09.19-Bulls-make-their-presence-kno...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.2860 was pierced yesterday but price bounced higher soon after; however, the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and we saw a new low yesterday so the current bullish move must be considered just a simple retracement in a downtrend. A break above the 50 EMA and above 1.2960 would weaken the downtrend and open the door for a stronger move to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks any notable economic or financial releases and we expect price action to be driven by technical factors.


GBP/USD

At the time of writing, the official results regarding the Scotland’s Independence Vote were not released but polls and surveys showed that Scottish people favored a “No” vote and probably the United Kingdom will remain with its current structure.

[Image: 2014.09.19-Bulls-make-their-presence-kno...24x479.png]

Technical Outlook

After the initial break of 1.6250, price re-tested the level from above and bounced higher on optimism that Scotland will remain a part of the United Kingdom. This bullish movement is likely to continue until 1.6460 is reached but if this occurs, we expect some sort of bearish reaction as probably the Relative Strength Index will enter oversold territory and the sellers still have underlying strength.

Fundamental Outlook

After a week filled with important events, the fundamental scene calms down a bit as no major events are scheduled for release.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.
 

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.
Need help? Click here to talk to our customer support
Site: http://www.gdmfx.com
Page: facebook.com/GDMFXcom
Email: customersupport@gdmfx.com
Reply
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