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Forexmart- News Release
India’s Consumer Price Inflation Abates this April
Thu May 11, 2017
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India’s inflation rate narrowed down because of lower food prices for the month of April. However, this would make it difficult to ease rates in the near future. Consumer price inflation is anticipated to maintain lower than the 4.0 percent medium target of the Reserve bank of India for the past six months.

It is predicted from a survey of economist that inflation in April will decline to a three-month low of 3.40 percent this month compared to the 3.81 in March. Yet, the central bank increased its inflation rate for fiscal 2017 to 2018 to reach 4.5 percent for the first half and 5.0 the second half of the year. An economist described the situation that even if the interest rate cut exceeded the 4 percent level in the next few months, the RBI will be cautious and would not cut rates since the current situation is stable.

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Thailand’s Strong First Quarter GDP growth
Mon May 15, 2017

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The export data of Thailand for first quarter moved at its most rapid *“quarterly pace” in the past four years and eases the monetary policy to support low key investment activities. Although it faces uncertainties with capital outflow and global trading protectionism, the U.S. Fed is taking signifying that it is gaining momentum to recovery.
The agency reduced its monetary projection from 3.0 - 4.0 percentage to 3.3 - 3.8 percentage economic advancement forecasts while its export progress has been elevated to 3.6 percent from 2.9 percent. The rise in exports is mainly due to steep costs of commodities more than the volume of trades.
The central bank retained its key percentage interest rate at 1.50 percent since April 2015 and the upcoming policy review is scheduled on May 24 and expected also kept unchanged. Yet, there is a possibility for the Thai central bank to increase its rates by 25 basis points later in the year because of both sturdy growth statistics and probable augmented U.S. rates.
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Australia's Record Low Wage Growth at 1.5%
Wed May 17, 2017
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The household debt climbed to an all-time high that affects spending and inflation that moved Australian wages sluggishly. This raised concern to the Reserve Bank of Australia and lower than the target of 2 to 3 percent leading to two rate cuts last year to a record low of 1.5 percent.

The wage price index climbed to 0.5 percent in the first quarter compared to the quarter before while the annual wage growth maintained at 1.9 percent which is significantly half less a decade ago. Although the central bank is pointing out that the wage growth decreases indicating less pressure to labor costs.

It is anticipated that inflation will recover early next year while wages rises slowly with the progressing jobs market. Data shows that the public sector to be gaining more appeal to investors with 2.4 percent increase compared to the 1.8 percent in the private sector. recovery of mining investments following a stagnant growth.

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Surge in Exports Uphold First quarter growth in Malaysia
Thu May 18, 2017
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The Malaysian economy gained momentum during the first quarter which is anticipated to be reflected on Friday report because of high demand for exports as well as the domestic interest. Some economists forecasted the annual growth early this year to be at 4.8 percent, higher than the 4.5 percent in the preceding quarter. Investors reacted as they dispossess their government bonds as much as 27.9 billion ringgit or $6.46 billion raising capital outflows to a record high from November to January.
A strong economy is relevant for the Malaysian government as Prime Minister Najib Razak is expected to request for early polls this year amid elevated day-to-day living costs that could affect his political party alliance.
The Malaysian ringgit appreciated by 3.7 percent against the greenback as the global demand for oil and commodities weakened. The pressure has already dissipated as the account surplus and outflow risks have significantly decreased that supported the currency to stabilize.

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Japan Exports Rallied for 5 Months
Mon May 22, 2017
watermarkEconomic news

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Exports from Japan notably increased for five consecutive months indicating a strong offshore demand and increased shipments of semiconductors and steels that boost economic growth. In April, exports climbed up to 7.5 percent compared with the previous year and lower than the median estimate of 7.8 percent yearly growth. 

On the other hand, its trade surplus with the U.S. also decreased by 4.2 percent from a year ago while the exports jumped by 2.6 percent and continuously grows in the past three months because of a high volume of car and auto parts shipments. An economist predicts that this upsurge will continue including domestic imports but the protectionist trade policies of Donald Trump raises concerns with Japan being an export-reliant country. 

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Canada And Brazil Set to Increase Oil Production
Tue May 23, 2017
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries together with its partners are about to unveil further details regarding the extension of output cuts while the main focus of the oil markets is on the production growth of  U.S. shale oil.
While experts are analyzing the statistics and predictions concerning the level of increase in U.S. manufacturing and its ability to disrupt the OPEC’s effort in correcting the market’s supply side.
Aside from the United States, another two major oil producers in the country are preparing to make an increase within this year namely Brazil and Canada. This rise in production was already anticipated by the intergovernmental organization, which would likely boost the US supply.
Based on the projections of IEA, the product volume will gain 5.6 million BPD in the year 2022. While the combined global growth estimates for the three countries will account for 60 percent.
The light tight oil (LTO) of US manufacturing is expected to have continuous expansion until 2022, acquiring 1.4 million BPD throughout the period, even when the oil cost did not break the US$60/barrel, according to 2017 oil report of IEA.
As stated to the predictions of the Paris-based agency, Canada would likely obtain a 900,000 bpd of output and on the other hand, the production in Brazil will get 1.1 million bpd in the next five years.

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Trump Proposed 45 Percent Cut in Mexico Aid from U.S. Spending
Wed May 24, 2017
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On Tuesday, the U.S. spending reserved for foreign aid for Mexico and Central America are to be reduced as proposed by the President Donald Trump. The budget was proposed to trim as much as $3.6 trillion government spending in the following ten years for 2018 budget proposal.Although, this may not get a legislative approval as to how it is currently with other departments cuts especially in the State department.
Mexican aid worth $87.66 million will be lessened over 45 percent from the 2016 expenditure when Trump's proposal is approved. The budget cut will be transferred to the Mexican military including counterterrorism funds and other government programs. One of the officials commented that these deals are focused on bolstering border security and fight against corruption that may have hindered transnational criminal organizations. There will be a meeting to discuss the employment and security concerns in Central America in June.

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Drop in Oil prices Discontented Investors in its Low Figure
Fri May 26, 2017
watermarkEconomic news

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Oil prices declined by 5 percent following the extension of production cuts by Opec causing other oil producing countries to be dismayed who are expecting a bigger reduction. Consequently, crude prices dropped to the highest percentage drop since early March. 

During the last OPEC meeting, they reached an agreement to prolong supply cuts constitute of 1.8 million barrels per day until the first quarter ends next year and investors are anticipating around half a million extra barrels to be contracted. However, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih said that other ministers find it unnecessary to lessen the output further and nine months is the “optimum” duration. 

On the other hand,  U.S. shale producers are motivated to provide more supplies because of the cheap cost of oil at $50 bpd. Although, they have to be careful since it could exceed the target increase and bring down further the price, stated by the Texas shale oil producer president David Arrington. 

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Fast track Economic Recovery of India in the First Quarter
Mon May 29, 2017
watermarkEconomic news

The economy of India is considered as the fastest developing major economy globally in the previous quarter, induced by positive performance in manufacturing and services. For short-term, the demonetization has affected the demand but was able to recover. The forecast for this year ranged between 6.5 and 7.8 while the actual data achieved a 7.1 percent growth from January to March this year. It has significantly risen from last year’s Q1 growth of 7.9 percent. 

The upswing in the economic growth was mainly pushed by positive domestic factors taking into account a notable progress of the central bank easing of policy rate into lending rates of financial institutions that made investment appealing to investors. Moreover, the infrastructure spending has substantiated growth and probability for better agricultural output when the monsoon rains become beneficial. 

On the other hand, the goods and sales tax (GST) is also anticipated to contribute to the economy as its removal will encourage more businesses in India. This will be implemented on July 1st. 


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