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FirewoodFX - Daily Market News
Asia Roundup:
Antipodeans eases as soft Chinese PPI stoke deflation fears, dollar slumps against yen as weak U.S. retail sales support Fed's dovish stance, Asian shares plunge –      
Friday, February 15th, 2019







Market Roundup

U.S. trade envoys to meet China's Xi, no decision on deadline extension

Chance of a U.S. recession up, number of Fed rate hikes down-POLL

China offers to end market-distorting subsidies but won't say how

Trump vows emergency declaration over wall, agrees to shutdown-averting bill

Spain's Socialist PM set to call snap election on Friday

China Jan CPI YY, 1.7%, 1.9% f'cast, 1.9% prev

China Jan CPI MM, 0.5%, 0.5% f'cast, 0.0% prev

China Jan PPI YY, 0.1%, 0.2% f'cast, 0.9% prev

U.S. fund investors charge into money market funds -Lipper

Foreign CB US debt holdings -$99 mln to $3.426 tln Feb 13 week

Treasuries -$914 mln to $3.036 tln, agencies +$882 mln to $320.127 bln



Economic Data Ahead

(0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Jan Retail Sales YY, 3.4% f'cast, 3.0% prev

(0430 ET/0930 GMT) Great Britain Jan Retail Sales MM, 0.2% f'cast, -0.9% prev

(0500 ET/1000 GMT) EZ Dec Eurostat Trade NSA (EUR), 19.0 bln prev

(0600 ET/1100 GMT) EZ Jan Reserve Assets Total (EUR), 719.05 bln prev



Key Events Ahead

(0700 ET/1200 GMT) Riksbank general council meeting – Stockholm

(0800 ET/1300 GMT) ECB's Benoit Coeure participates in C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics organized by CFR – New York City

(0955 ET/1455 GMT) FRB Atlanta's Raphael Bostic speaks on “Workforce Development” at Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama – Birmingham, Atlanta

(1045 ET/1545 GMT) ECB's Ignazio Angeloni participates in panel session titled “The Future of Banking: Will European Banks Survive?” – Bruneck, Italy



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index nudged higher, hovering towards a near 2-month peak, after Fed Governor Lael Brainard stated that the U.S. Federal Reserve should stop paring its balance sheet by the end of this year, indicating the Fed could wind up with a permanently bigger balance sheet than had been expected earlier. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.1 percent up at 97.08, having touched a high of 97.29 the day before, its highest since December 17. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 15.26 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro eased, reversing some of its previous session gains, weighed down by weaker-than-expected euro zone data and expectations the European Central Bank will keep monetary policy accommodative for the rest of the year. The European currency traded 0.1 percent down at 1.1285, having touched a low of 1.1248 on Thursday, its lowest since Nov. 13. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -67.11 (Bearish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on Eurozone trade balance and ECB Coeure's speech, ahead of the U.S. capacity utilization, industrial production, and export and import price index. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1329 (5-DMA), a break above targets 1.1368 (Feb.7 High).. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1216 (Nov. 13 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1180.

USD/JPY: The dollar slumped to a 4-day low, as weak U.S. retail sales data reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year. On Thursday, the major rallied to a 1-1/2 month peak as investors cheered U.S. President Donald Trump's upbeat assessment of the trade talks with China. The major was trading 0.2 percent down at 110.29, having hit a high of 111.12 the day before, its highest since December 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 48.27 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. capacity utilization, industrial production, and export and import price index. Immediate resistance is located at 111.05 (Feb. 13 Low), a break above targets 111.40 (Dec. 26 Low). On the downside, support is seen at 110.11 (10-DMA), a break below could take it lower at 109.60 (Feb. 7 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling consolidated near a 1-month low touched in the previous session after Prime Minister Theresa May lost a symbolic Brexit vote in parliament that undermined her pledge to European Union leaders to get her deal approved if they grant her concessions.  The major traded flat at 1.2798, having hit a low of 1.2772 on Thursday; it’s lowest since January 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -90.62 (Slightly Bearish) 0400 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on developments surrounding Brexit deal and UK retail sales, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2927 (10-DMA), a break above could take it near 1.2996 (February 7 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2766 (Nov 22 Low), a break below targets 1.2728 (Jan. 10 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading flat at 87.18 pence, having hit a low of 88.39 on Thursday, it’s lowest since Jan. 21.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased after data showed China's producer price inflation slowed for a seventh straight month in January to its weakest since September 2016. The selling pressure intensified after Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent welcomed the domestic currency's decline given there was still slack in the labour market and inflation remained below target. The Aussie trades 0.3 percent down at 0.7087, having hit a high of 0.7135 on Wednesday; it’s highest since February 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -46.73 (Neutral) by 0400 GMT. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.7044 (Dec. 26 Low), a break below targets 0.7016 (Dec. 27 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7166 (January 24 High), a break above could take it near 0.7203 (January 28 High).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar retreated from a 1-week peak hit in the prior session as China faced the risk of a return to deflation, amid concerns of no apparent agreement in sight in U.S.-China trade talks. The Kiwi trades 0.2 percent down at 0.6821, having touched a high of 0.6855 on Thursday, its highest level Feb. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at 153.37 (Highly Bullish) by 0400 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6862 (Jan. 29 High), a break above could take it near 0.6911 (Dec. 11 High). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6766 (Feb. 6 Low), a break below could drag it below 0.6706 (Jan. 22 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares slumped after data showed China's producer prices slow for 7th straight month, raising concerns the Chinese economy may see the return of deflation as domestic demand cools.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.3 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei declined 1.2 percent to 20,876.89 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index gained 0.1 percent to 6,066.10 points and South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.6 percent to 2,189.94 points.

Shanghai composite index eased 0.8 percent to 2,697.63 points, while CSI300 index traded 1.2 percent down at 3,360.87 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 1.7 percent lower at 27,939.77 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.3 percent to 10,064.78 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices surged to a near 3-month peak, amid U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran and supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.6 percent up at $65.00 per barrel by 0439 GMT, having hit a high of $65.08 earlier, its highest since November 20. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.5 percent higher at $54.69 a barrel, after rising as high as $54.94, its highest since the February 5.

Gold prices steadied as the dollar weakened slightly after disappointing U.S. data indicated slowing economic momentum that supported the U.S. Federal Reserve's patient monetary policy approach. Spot gold was trading flat at $1,312.59 per ounce at 0447 GMT, having touched a high of $1,318.02 on Wednesday, its highest level since February 4. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,315 an ounce.










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Asia Roundup:
Antipodeans at 1-1/2 week peak, dollar gains against yen on U.S.-China trade deal hopes; Asian shares rally –      
Monday, February 18th, 2019







Market Roundup

U.S. blocks North Korean air traffic revival ahead of Trump-Kim summit – sources

U.S. agency submits auto tariff probe report to White House

China-U.S. trade talks 'making a final sprint' – state media

China's Jan car sales fall 15.8 pct y/y, seventh month of decline

Foreign demand for Japanese machinery slumps by most since 2007

UK's May to speak to every EU head in bid for Brexit deal changes

UK businesses plan to raise pay by most since 2012 – CIPD

Pence chastises EU, rejects Merkel's call to work with Russia

ECB's Rehn sees euro zone economy weakening

Saudi crown prince begins Asia tour with $20 bln Pakistan investment pledge



Economic Data Ahead

No major economic data releases



Key Events Ahead

(0600 ET/1100 GMT) Belgian Central Bank Governor Pierre Wunsch to present the central bank's annual report in Brussels

(1115 ET/1615 GMT) ECB Supervisor Andrea Enria participates in a panel discussion at an event in Brussels



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index fell to a 5-day low, as investors cautiously awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, due Wednesday that could provide guidance on the path of rates this year. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.1 percent down at 96.81, having touched a high of 97.37 the session before, its highest since December 17. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -118.85 (Highly Bearish) by 0500 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro rebounded after falling to a 3-month low in the previous session on expectations the European Central Bank will keep its monetary policy accommodative due to low growth, tepid inflation and political uncertainties. The European currency traded 0.2 percent up at 1.1310, having touched a low of 1.1234 on Friday, its lowest since Nov. 13. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -71.49 (Slightly Bearish) by 0500 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1341 (Feb. 13 High), a break above targets 1.1368 (Feb.7 High).. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1216 (Nov. 13 Low), a break below could drag it till 1.1180.

USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the Japanese yen as both the United States and China reported progress in five days of negotiations in Beijing last week. However, data showing China's automobile sales in January tumbled 15.8 percent from a year earlier raised concerns over the strength of the Chinese economy. The major was trading 0.1 percent down at 110.52, having hit a high of 111.12 on Thursday, its highest since December 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 50.80 (Bullish) by 0500 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 111.05 (Feb. 13 Low), a break above targets 111.40 (Dec. 26 Low). On the downside, support is seen at 110.25 (10-DMA), a break below could take it lower at 109.60 (Feb. 7 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling consolidated above the 1.2900 handle after the Irish foreign minister stated that despite Prime Minister Theresa May's latest parliamentary loss, European Union states still stand willing to offer a package to help her get a Brexit withdrawal deal. The major traded 0.2 percent up at 1.2908, having hit a low of 1.2772 on Thursday; it’s lowest since January 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 64.52 (Bullish) 0500 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2958 (Feb. 18 High), a break above could take it near 1.2996 (February 7 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2845 (Feb 11 Low), a break below targets 1.2766 (Nov 22 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading flat at 87.60 pence, having hit a high of 87.42, it’s highest since Feb. 8.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rallied to a 1-1/2 week peak, amid hopes of some resolution in the protracted U.S.-China trade war and expectations of expansionary global monetary policy. The Aussie trades 0.1 percent up at 0.7150, having hit a high of 0.7158; it’s highest since February 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 59.83 (Bullish) by 0500 GMT. Immediate support is seen at 0.7089 (Feb. 7 Low), a break below targets 0.7044 (Dec. 26 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7166 (January 24 High), a break above could take it near 0.7203 (January 28 High).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar advanced to a near 2-week peak, as expectations the United States and China would come to an agreement to resolve their year-long trade dispute boosted risk sentiment. The Kiwi trades 0.2 percent up at 0.6877, having touched a high of 0.6893, its highest level Feb. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at 60.51 (Bullish) by 0500 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 0.6911 (Dec. 11 High), a break above could take it near 0.6941 (Feb. 1 High). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6808 (21-DMA), a break below could drag it below 0.6766 (Feb. 6 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares jumped amid hopes for progress in U.S.-China trade talks in Washington this week and expectations of more policy stimulus from major central banks.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.0 percent.

Tokyo's Nikkei gained 1.8 percent to 21,281.85 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index surged 0.4 percent to 6,089.80 points and South Korea's KOSPI advanced 0.6 percent to 2,210.89 points.

Shanghai composite index rose 2.7 percent to 2,754.36 points, while CSI300 index traded 3.2 percent up at 3,445.74 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 1.7 percent higher at 28,372.98 points. Taiwan shares shed 0.8 percent to 10,145.28 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices steadied after rising to their highest this year earlier in the session as a drop in China's automobile sales in January raised concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.1 percent up at $66.33 per barrel by 0513 GMT, having hit a high of $66.76 earlier, its highest since November 20. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.1 percent higher at $55.82 a barrel, after rising as high as $56.11, its highest since the November 20.

Gold prices rallied to their strongest level in more than 2-weeks as the dollar weakened on hopes the United States and China are nearing a trade deal. Spot gold gained 0.2 percent to $1,323.31 per ounce by 0521 GMT, having touched a high of $1,325.21 earlier, its highest level since January 31. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4 percent to $1,327.8 an ounce.










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Asia Roundup:
Aussie gains on mixed wage price index, dollar gains against yen on hopes of U.S.-China trade deal, Asian shares rally –      
Wednesday, February 20th, 2019







Market Roundup

Amid trade talks, China urges U.S. to respect its right to develop, prosper

Fed's Williams says new economic outlook necessary for rate hikes

U.S. Fed says minutes to be released on time as offices close

Trump confident he will prevail against lawsuits over emergency declaration

Trump plans to nominate Jeffrey Rosen as Justice Dept. No. 2 -senior official

May in Brussels again, seeking Brexit movement

UK's Hammond says EU won't consider alternatives to backstop for now

Japanese firms see flat business spending amid trade frictions, tax hike jitters

Japan Jan Exports YY, -8.4%, -5.5% f’cast, -3.8% prev, -3.9% rvsd

Japan Jan Imports YY, -0.6%, -2.8% f’cast, 1.9% prev

Japan Jan Trade Balance Total Yen, -1,415.2 bln, -1,011.0 bln f'cast, -55.3 bln prev, -56.7 bln rvsd

Australia Q4 Wage Price Index QQ, 0.5%, 0.6% f’cast, 0.6% prev

Australia Q4 Wage Price Index YY, 2.3%, 2.3% f’cast, 2.3% prev



Economic Data Ahead

(0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Jan Producer Prices MM, -0.2% f’cast, -0.4% prev

(0200 ET/0700 GMT) Germany Jan Producer Prices YY, 2.2% f’cast, 2.7% prev

(1000 ET/1500 GMT) EZ Feb Consumer Confid. Flash, -7.8 f’cast, -7.9 prev



Key Events Ahead

(0200 ET/0700 GMT) ECB chief economist Peter Praet delivers a speech in Frankfurt

(0600 ET/1100 GMT) Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Flodén discusses the economic situation and monetary policy in Stockholm

(1310 ET/1810 GMT) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan participates in a moderated question-and-answer session in Houston

(1400ET/1900 GMT) FOMC will release the minutes from its January 29-30, 2019 policy meeting in Washington



FX Beat

DXY: The dollar index rebounded from near 2-week lows after New York Fed President John Williams stated that he was comfortable with the current U.S. interest rates levels and there is no need to raise them again unless economic growth or inflation shifts to an unexpectedly higher gear. The greenback against a basket of currencies trades 0.05 percent up at 96.56, having touched a low of 96.43 on Tuesday, its lowest since February 8. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at -70.31 (Bearish) by 0500 GMT.

EUR/USD: The euro rose, hovering towards a near 2-week peak hit in the previous session after data released on Tuesday showed Germany recorded the world's largest current account surplus for the third year running in 2018 due to strong exports. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1343, having touched a high of 1.1357 on Tuesday, its highest since Feb. 7. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 25.29 (Neutral) by 0500 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on Eurozone prelim consumer confidence and ECB Praet's speech ahead of the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes release. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1368 (Feb.7 High), a break above targets 1.1394 (Jan. 23 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1299 (5-DMA), a break below could drag it till 1.1216 (Nov. 13 Low).

USD/JPY: The dollar rallied to a 6-day peak, amid optimism that a fresh round of talks between China and the United States would help resolve their trade conflict. The major was trading 0.2 percent up at 110.82, having hit a high of 111.12 on Thursday, its highest since December 27. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 127.76 (Bearish) by 0500 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes release. Immediate resistance is located at 111.05 (Feb. 13 Low), a break above targets 111.40 (Dec. 26 Low). On the downside, support is seen at 110.25 (Feb.15 Low), a break below could take it lower at 109.60 (Feb. 7 Low).

GBP/USD: Sterling slightly edged lower after rising to an over 2-week peak earlier in the session on hopes that British Prime Minister Theresa May will make progress in seeking changes to her Brexit deal with the European Union. The major traded 0.05 percent down at 1.3054, having hit a high of 1.3076 earlier; it’s highest since February 14. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 105.49 (Highly Bullish) 0500 GMT. Investors’ attention will remain on PM May and EU Juncker's meeting, ahead of the U.S. fundamental drivers. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3103 (Feb. 4 High), a break above could take it near 1.3160 (January 31 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.2993 (5-DMA), a break below targets 1.2903 (5-DMA). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.1 percent down at 86.86 pence, having hit a high of 86.72 on Tuesday, it’s highest since Jan. 29.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar surged to a 2-week peak on mixed domestic data, with wages missing forecasts in the December quarter but annual growth in the private sector rising at the fastest pace in five years. The Aussie trades flat at 0.7160, having hit a high of 0.7176 earlier; it’s highest since February 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 96.20 (Slightly Bullish) by 0500 GMT. Investors will continue to track overall market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic releases. Immediate support is seen at 0.7125 (5-DMA), a break below targets 0.7089 (Feb. 7 Low). On the upside, resistance is located at 0.7203 (January 28 High), a break above could take it near 0.7235 (January 11 High).

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar declined, as the greenback gained ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's January policy-setting meeting. The Kiwi trades 0.2 percent down at 0.6865, having touched a high of 0.6893 on Monday, its highest level Feb. 6. FxWirePro's Hourly Kiwi Strength Index was at -43.69 (Neutral) by 0500 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. economic data.  Immediate resistance is located at 0.6911 (Dec. 11 High), a break above could take it near 0.6941 (Feb. 1 High). On the downside, support is seen at 0.6795 (10-DMA), a break below could drag it below 0.6766 (Feb. 6 Low).



Equities Recap

Asian shares consolidated near 4-month highs, supported by hopes that U.S.-China trade talks were making progress.

MSCI's broadest of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan nudged higher.

Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.1 percent to 21,308.70 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index surged 0.3 percent to 6,106.90 points and South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.2 percent to 2,207.68 points.

Shanghai composite index declined 0.3 percent to 2,746.08 points, while CSI300 index traded 0.4 percent down at 3,432.25 points.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded 0.2 percent lower at 28,282.16 points. Taiwan shares added 0.1 percent to 10,152.26 points.



Commodities Recap

Crude Oil prices eased after rising to 2019 highs in the previous session on supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.2 percent down at $66.31 per barrel by 0523 GMT, having hit a high of $66.81 on Monday, its highest since November 20. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.8 percent higher at $56.49 a barrel, after rising as high as $56.75 earlier, its highest since the November 20.

Gold prices rallied to fresh 10-month highs, boosted by global slowdown concerns and a weaker dollar, with markets eyeing the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes later in the day. Spot gold was trading 0.1perecnt up at $1,342.71 per ounce by 0527 GMT, having touched a high of $1,346.78 per ounce earlier, its highest level since April 20. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.2 percent to $1,342.6 an ounce.










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