Portal Komuniti Informasi Malaysia Terkini
BTCClicks.com Banner
Hello There, Guest! Register Login with Facebook

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Daily Market Analysis By ForexTime ( FXTM )
#31
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Global stocks rally, Sterling on standby ahead of UK budget



[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]


The healthy combination of rising corporate profits, strong global growth and cautious optimism over U.S. corporate tax cuts, simply reinvigorated global equity bulls on Tuesday – boosting stocks across the globe.

Asian shares headed for a record close during early trading on Wednesday, following Wall Street’s robust gains overnight. European markets concluded mostly higher on Tuesday and may open on a positive note today as market players continue to shrug off the political uncertainty in Europe. With U.S. stock indexes marching to record highs yesterday as technology and health stocks rallied, it will be interesting to see if the upside momentum is maintained this afternoon.

Chancellor Philip Hammond in the spotlight

Chancellor Philip Hammond will be in the limelight today as he presents the U.K. budget statement to the House of Commons. While Hammond’s speech may revolve around managing the housing crisis, investors will be paying attention to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) which is expected to trim Britain’s GDP growth forecasts. If the overall tone of the budget statement is gloomy and Brexit concerns making an appearance, Sterling is likely to find itself under renewed selling pressure.

Taking a look at the technical outlook, the GBPUSD has found light support at 1.3230. An intraday breakout above 1.3250 could encourage a further incline towards 1.3300. Alternatively, a failure for prices to keep above 1.3230 may encourage a decline to 1.3150.

[Image: gbpusddaily_388.png?itok=u6tIjPUL]

Dollar lower ahead of FOMC minutes

The Greenback weakened against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, after Yellen’s cautious remarks reinforced market expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at a gradual pace.

Yellen cautioned that raising interest rates too quickly could obstruct the Feds efforts to reach the golden 2% target and reiterated the fact that this year’s low U.S. inflation remained a mystery. With the outgoing Fed chair uncertain over the stubbornly low inflation being transitory, investors were left pondering over how this could influence the central bank’s monetary policy strategy in 2018.

Much attention will be directed towards the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting this evening which should offer further clues on the central bank’s outlook future interest rate increases. With markets widely expecting U.S. interest rates to be increased in December, investors are likely to closely scrutinize the minutes for fresh insight into monetary policy beyond 2017.

The Dollar could receive a boost if the minutes are presented with a hawkish touch, alternatively, if the minutes express concerns over low inflation and fail to bring anything new to the table, sellers may make a move. From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is coming under pressure on the daily charts with resistance found at 94.00. Sustained weakness below this level may encourage a further decline towards 93.50. Alternatively, a breach back above 94.15 puts this current bearish setup at risk, with the next level of interest at 94.50.




More Info Here



Reply
Thanks given by:
#32
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Yen bulls jump on weak FED inflation outlook


[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]


FOMC meeting minutes are always greeted warmly by the markets, as a glimpse of the potential future direction of the FED going forward, and today didn't disappoint at all. As predicted the FED was positive about the possibility of a December rate hike before the year goes out, and the market has aptly priced this in. Markets on the other hand were caught off by certain members reluctance to actually lift rates as they felt inflation was starting to slow down and the previous large rises may not continue going forward. Now with Yellen set to resign and the new head of the FED taking over, it may be the case that we do see more hawkish movements. But the board is a democratic vote, so unless we see real movement there it becomes very unlikely at this stage and the doves could be staying on for some time.

For traders the USD sell off in safe-haven currencies was strong with the USD losing a number of points especially against the Yen. USDJPY was by far the most volatile trade of today, which surprised many given how flat it had recently been, but markets were quick to punish the FED over its dovish comments. One of the major reasons behind the sudden appreciation of the Yen is that thus far Abenomics has not been as active as expected and it continues to be at a risk of being devalued quickly. It's also a fantastic storage for traders looking for some sort of safety within the markets and a traditional one at that as well. However, for the USDJPY bears the time to jump was today and they certainly did.


[Image: usdjpydaily_89.png?itok=O4JuUNVs]


USDJPY bears crashed through the 200 day moving average ruthlessly as they looked to push the pairs to strong support levels. Support at 111.133 was able to holt the downward trend, but so far is the only thing holding back the USDJPY from storming any lower. Markets looking to swing lower further are likely to find another strong level of support at 110.202, but the market may take some breather here and give up some gains. For traders looking for a bounce higher then resistance can be found at 111.944 and 112.787. The reality for the bulls jumping back in though is slim, as this bearish trend is likely to push traders back in the water in search of blood.

After the recent failures of traders to break through resistance at 114.359 over the previous month, it's no surprise that the market has jumped on a bearish trend. The question is though will it continue to run, or will markets look to pause and take stock of the volatility we've seen today. My thoughts are that it  could potentially slow down but still trend, which would be promising for traders looking for an easy wave. 


More Info Here


Reply
Thanks given by:
#33
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Stocks drop, currencies range bound & bitcoin eyes $10,000


[Image: shutterstock_444206605.jpg]


Most Asian indices edged lower on Tuesday, following a mixed session on Wall Street yesterday. China is becoming a key market to watch, as it’s leading the direction for other markets across Asia. Rising bond yields are threatening corporate profit margins for the second largest economy; meanwhile Chinese authorities are helping to drag equities lower, after sending alarming messages about a potential bubble being created in large-cap firms. Given that China continues to focus on quality rather than quantity growth, it’s not surprising to witness action of this nature from the Chinese government in an attempt to mitigate bubbles in asset prices. However, such actions may have a negative impact on sentiments that could spread across other Asian markets.

U.S. equity traders are in a wait-and-see mode. President Trump will meet senators today at their weekly policy lunch, to ensure that Republicans are on the same page regarding the tax system overhaul. I firmly believe that U.S. legislative tax reforms are strongly “priced in” the U.S. markets, thus if significant tax reforms do not pass, I expect a substantial decline in major indices, particularly in small caps. Given that the effective tax rate currently stands at around 27%, taxes should be brought below 25% to be effective. Republican Senator Ron Johnson said he would vote against the bill unless his concerns about the legislation are resolved. Given that other Republican Senators share Johnson worries on deficit implications, passing the bill does not seem to be a done deal yet.

Currency markets were trading in narrow ranges early Tuesday, as investors brace for UK bank stress test results, BoE’s Carney Speech and the Fed speech, including Powell’s Congressional address. On the data front, the U.S. Goods Trade Balance, and the Housing Price Index are likely to have minimal impact on the USD.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin scored a new record high of $9,886 in an attempt to break above the critical $10,000 threshold. Bitcoin has become a very hot topic and many fund managers have raised the price target for the cryptocurrency. Yesterday, former Fortress hedge fund manager Michael Novogratz commented on CNBC, that bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018 and he expects that total market capitalization could reach $2 trillion, from $309 billion currently. I think that we will hear more skyrocket predictions, but few will provide an economic metric that supports their valuations. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts when Bitcoin breaks above $10,000.




More Info Here

Reply
Thanks given by:
#34
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Pound rallies on divorce bill rumours



[Image: shutterstock_444206605.jpg]



It's been a crazy day on the markets and the GBPUSD has been a clear winner when it comes to movements today as the Market has reacted positively to the so called 'Divorce Bill' from the EU that Britain is meant to pay. So far people are expectong the figure to come in around 50-60 billion pounds that would be paid out over 40 years. Obviously, this is a large number for any sovereign nation, but it enables Britain to plow forth in its so called negotiations. The market is now looking for the next steps for the UK economy, as it expect to see some sort of trade negotiations come out of all of this. I do think that it might be a bit of a while off that we do see something realistic, the fact being that a) the UK has no strong leg to stand on, and b) it's always a long road to what people expect will be a result. Either way the volatility in the GBPUSD is likely to continue into the near future especially with the current pace of news and politics involved in Brexit.

[Image: gbpusddaily_394.png?itok=OPjc41_t]

On the charts it's clear to see that the bulls are back into the market and are climbing higher. Yesterday we were talking about the 1.33 levels, and today we are in the 1.34 levels which shows the market is keen on these talks. After touching resistance at 1.3438 the market has pulled back to take a breather, but the real key level is to be found at 1.3588 which is where bullish traders will be looking to aim in this market. In the even the bears do regain control and look to push it lower then support at 1.3339 is likely to be a prime candidate for support as well as 1.3256. Traders should also be aware of the previous trend line which continues to be an obstacle for any bears in the current market.

The US also continued its stellar run today with US pending home sales m/m lifting by 3.5% (1% exp) once again showcasing the strength in the USD. On top of the traders were also somewhat bullish about the first round of the senate tax review of the Trump tax bill, which is likely to boost the US economy - even though running a deficit for a bit. One of the big losers for this has been the commodity currencies which have been bearish against the USD with all this support.

[Image: nzdusddaily_52.png?itok=GyY_NaXu]

For me the NZDUSD continues to be one of those currencies that will struggle with a resurgent USD in the current market climate. So far all the candles have shown exhaustion by bulls in the market as the NZDUSD dipped under resistance at 0.6891. The market is now looking to extend further lower to 0.6834 and 0.6802 on the charts, as the market looks to push it back into the red. For me the bulls are going to be a real threat until the USD gives up some ground as the NZ economy is still struggling in the interim while it figures out a new government.





More Info Here

Reply
Thanks given by:
#35
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Market waits on Bank of Canada



[Image: shutterstock_444206605.jpg]


With a US tax bill and a Brexit currently flying around in the markets it's hard not to get lost on the bigger picture for other countries as well. However, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is one that we should all be paying attention to as in the next 24 hours they will have their monthly interest rate decision, as well as follow up conference to the market. Now a interest rate is not priced in at present - in fact the odds are very low, but the BoC has a habit of surprising markets and the recent employment figures were very positive adding further weight to the potential for a rise. I don't anticipate we will see a surprise interest rate jump, however the words that will be used will be vital for the market when it comes to pricing in the next interest rate rise and of course are likely to have a big impact on the Canadian dollar. It's not always about oil for the Canadian economy, but one thing is clear there is certainly more to offer on the trading calendar than oil updates.

[Image: usdcaddaily_39.png?itok=Wz5fi_hk]


So far the USDCAD has been a big mover and has held up nicely on the charts in preparation for the upcoming announcement. So far the USD has been losing ground against the CAD after traders were quick to attack on USD weakness and the strong jobs report. Any movements higher on the USDCAD were likely to struggle regardless with resistance at 1.2759 and 1.2921, but also with the 200 day moving average starting to ebb lower and showing a pattern of being respected strongly by the USDCAD. Movements lower are likely to find support at 1.2628 and 1.2516 in the current market, but I would also watch out for the oil figures as well, as a strong drawdown would put further bearish pressure on the USDCAD.

One of the key metal markets which has been moving sharply lower recently has been silver which has been reacting sharply to the boost in equities. There has been talk recently that metals could potentially be replaced by Bitcoin and the likes, but I don't believe they represent a tangible hedge like precious metals do in the current environment. What is clear that the US economy booming is starting to have a negative effect on the price of silver and the market is starting to shift lower as a response.

[Image: xagusddaily_26.png?itok=c8C32PnU]


I've always been a fan of silver and the trend is looking quite strong on the charts so far for the bears. Support has held up nicely at 15.996, with the potential to move event further lower to 15.556. Resistance is currently high in 16 dollar region at 16.546 and 16.863 at this stage. All in all though the bearish trend is strong and could continue in the current environment if we don't see any large hiccups. 


More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:
#36
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

CAD in focus on dovish comments


[Image: shutterstock_444206605.jpg]


The Canadian dollar was back in focus today as the market was looking for hawkish signs from the Bank of Canada, on the back of the recent interest rate statement. The interest rate was kept at 1% however, and the market was caught off guard by the dovish comments made by the BoC. While the economy has been adding new jobs and Fridays figures were a testament to that (+441,400), the BoC is still concerned about the NAFTA negotiations that are ongoing, as well as recent housing market developments. This came as a shock for a lot of market pundits, but more important it forced forecasts further out for future rate rises, while before the market was betting heavily on the BoC to come through and cause further positive betting on rate rises.

[Image: usdcaddaily_40.png?itok=M-QghHPZ]

The USDCAD was quick to jump on the back of the news out from the BoC, as USD bulls rushed away with all the recent gains and pushed through resistance at 1.2759. Further levels higher can be found at 1.2921 with the potential for any higher gains to the 200 day moving average - which would be very hard to push through. If the market does turn around and head back south then support at 1.2628 and 1.2516 are likely to be the prime candidates for bearish traders, with the area between these two levels likely to act as a key selling point on the market.

Crude has been one of those funny players in the market as of late with a bullish rise, which has been purely on the back of OPEC extending production cuts. Now for many this comes as no surprise as the oil market did need to stabilise but today's fall caught many off guard given that the drawdown came in stronger than expected at -5.61M (-2.5M exp). The reason for this was refined oil products with gasoline showing an increase to 6.8M barrels, beating market expectations and causing the oil market to sell-off. Selling pressure is common when you have a build up of refined products as the market might start to think it's flagging or peaked already. 

[Image: crudedaily_42.png?itok=EY3vSxFD]

Oil now finds itself in a weird place at present as the recent rise has struck strong resistance at 59.08 in this market, and the fall today hit the current old trend line which the market is respecting before taking a pause and stopping all together. I'm not sure if there is further potential falls on the cards given the bulls have been so strong, and this could be an excuse to unwind. However, if the trend line did break then support could be found at 55.14. If oil does indeed jump back higher, then for me resistance at 57.38 and 59.08 are the key levels traders will look to target. Expectations are though that 59.08 will be the level to beat currently.



More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:
#37
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Bitcoin future trading kicks off; Investors awaiting central banks decisions


[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]



Trading bitcoins entered a new phase today, after Chicago’s CBOE listed the first futures contract on the cryptocurrency. The initial reaction was beyond expectations with the futures contract climbing more than 20% and triggering two trading halts. CBOE’s website experienced unprecedented traffic which may well have sent a new benchmark, the frenetic activity lead to delays and outages. So far, it seems professional investors aren’t willing to bet against the bitcoin, despite the many warnings of a bubble that will burst soon. Many traders aren’t even interested in the price direction, but the listing of the futures contract on CBOE and later next week on the CME, will provide them an arbitrage trading opportunity due to the vast pricing differences. However, the arbitrage trading will lead to improved price efficiency and probably less volatility. After volatility settles down, the focus will return to the price direction.

Central Banks Meetings

Currency markets were trading in tight ranges early Monday with the dollar slightly weaker against its major peers. Expectations of the Fed hiking rates on Wednesday, stands at 90.2% according to CME’s Fedwatch tool which means the disappointment in wage growth won’t shift the needle for US monetary policy. However, it isn’t the rate hike that will move the dollar on Wednesday, it’s the tone, economic projections and the dot plot. Given that we’re getting closer to a deal on tax reforms, the Fed might become slightly more hawkish. It remains to be seen whether this will shift up the Fed’s dots for future interest rate expectations.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also meeting this week. Despite no substantive monetary policy changes expected, the language might still move the Euro and the Pound.

Will the Fed support further rotation in stocks?

Tech shares have been in focus over the past two weeks after the S&P tech index plunged more than 4% between 29-Nov and 05-Dec, before recovering last week. The fall in Teck stocks wasn’t accompanied by a selloff in other sectors, particularly the financials which have been on the rise. This is a classic type of rotation with active managers balancing their portfolios before year end. Tax reforms don’t seem to be of great support to Tech firms, given that their effective tax rate is considered to be the lowest in the U.S. Meanwhile, it’s a big deal for the rest of the U.S, with financials having an effective tax rate of more than 30%. The new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will likely speed up deregulation for the financial sector which will drive more inflows. And of course, higher interest rates for 2018 will further support the banks' profit margins. That’s why the trajectory of interest rates in 2018 will likely lead to more portfolio balancing before year end.

EU Summit

The breakthrough in Brexit talks on Friday was a great relief for policymakers, who can now move to phase-2 of the talks. Interestingly though, Sterling instead of rising sharply, dropped on the news. Investors seem reluctant to buy Sterling as they view the next phase more complicated than the first. They want to see details of the transition agreement and trade talks concluded before buying Sterling. I don’t think the EU summit on Friday will reveal much, but blessings from EU leaders might lend some support to the Pound.



More Info Here

Reply
Thanks given by:
#38
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US retail sales beat expectations


[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]


It's been a funny day for the USD as it slipped lower on Tax legislation worries. For the most part it has fallen around two senators who are keen to fix the current child tax credits. In reality this is something republicans are likely to help remedy in order to get this bill over the final hurdles and in front of the president to sign before Christmas. However, for me the big mover - and what might have a much more interesting impact - was of course today's retail sales which lifted sharply to 0.8% m/m (0.3% exp). This is a very strong move just ahead of the December rush season and in return we could expect to see GDP forecasts raised for the 4th quarter going forward. I would be surprised if we didn't see solid earnings this season in the equity markets as well given the huge rises in consumer and business confidence. For now it would seem the Trump effect might be still there after all heading into the new year.

[Image: usdcaddaily_42.png?itok=FnTj3jIG]

One of the key areas this was felt was on the USDCAD which was swinging heavily today, not only on the USD weakness but also Bank of Canada comments which pushed up the chances of a rate hike for March next year. For the most part the USDCAD has been ranging for some time, and it has struggled to break through the major resistance level at 1.2921, which has so far seemed like an impossibility at present. One of the main reasons also has been the 200 day moving average bearing down on that level which of course adds further pressure. At the same time the swing lower today failed to stay below support at 1.2759 which leads me to believe that the bulls are still in this market despite the Canadian recovery we've seen. If the bulls do leap back into the market 200 day moving average will be the key level to close above, and if we do close above then expectations are that we could see a move upwards to the 1.3000 level. For now though it's a case of waiting to see if the ranging does stop and the trends continue.

The other key one to watch out for is the AUD, with the market likely to be looking forward now to next week's RBA minutes on the economy and their thoughts after the most recent unemployment figures. We could certainly see the case made for a potential rate rise in the future, but for now it's a case of wait and see - even though the market is fairly bullish.

[Image: audusddaily_52.png?itok=ITAdLT3e]

Chart wise, and it's clear the AUDUSD bulls are back in fashion and looking to make up some ground. After the positive news yesterday and weak USD it is a surprise to see that it has failed to climb higher to the 200 day moving average and resistance at 0.7687. I still believe this is a key level to watch and if we do see further extensions it could lead to bigger things. For now though like the USDCAD it's a case of wait and see as the market looks to enter Friday trading
.



More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:
#39
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Equities reaction muted on tax breakthrough; Watch the bond market



[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]



Asian markets woke up on Thursday to the news that Republicans had passed the long-awaited tax bill. President Trump is now just a pen stroke away from overhauling the tax code. Interestingly there aren’t any fireworks on the announcement of Trump’s Christmas gift; because as expected, the good news is already priced in.

In fact, the reaction was more evident in fixed income markets. U.S. 10-year bond yields traded above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017, allowing the yield curve to steepen after flattening for most of 2017. The spread between 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds climbed more than 12 basis points, reaching 63 basis points, after falling to its lowest level in a decade last week. The spike in long-term bond yields is supposed to be positive for the U.S. dollar, as it suggests the Federal Reserve should become more aggressive in tightening policy next year. However, the dollar’s reaction was muted because there’s another side to this story. The additional supply of U.S. bonds due to the unfunded tax cuts, will probably make U.S. treasuries less attractive in the longer run, and given that most central banks are trying to catch up with the Federal Reserve, yields in Europe and other markets are also anticipated to move higher in 2018, thus narrowing the interest rate differentials gap. 

The enormous expected increase in U.S. deficit will also put the U.S. sovereign credit rating at risk. If any of the credit agencies- Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s or Fitch downgrades the U.S. sovereign rating, yields will spike even higher. However, the impact on the dollar won’t necessarily be positive, with the opposite reaction being more likely. 

The Yen’s reaction was also muted to Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision. As expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged at -0.1% and maintained its 10-year bonds yield target at around 0%. Given that weak inflation is expected to continue dominating the monetary policy outlook, I don’t expect any significant change in policy next year. Thus, the Japanese Yen will continue to take its cue from risk appetite/aversion in equity markets for the foreseeable future.

Euro traders are awaiting the outcome of today’s Catalonia’s election. Polls are suggesting that it will be a tight race between the Catalan Republican Left party, which supports independence and Ciudadanos which is in favor of a unified Spain. Given that the election is not expected to be decisive and parties may form coalitions to govern, the risk of tensions flaring with Madrid again, remain limited.



More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:
#40
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Dollar selloff in final trading week of 2017



[Image: shutterstock_445523356_4.jpg]


With only two trading sessions remaining for 2017, liquidity dried up across the global markets. This has been obvious in U.S. and European equities, where volumes dropped significantly. However, some investors continued to tweak their portfolios slightly, leading to insignificant price action. I don’t expect equities to deviate much throughout Thursday and Friday.

Interestingly though, traders continued selling off the U.S. dollar.  One could blame Wednesday’s U.S. consumer confidence report which fell from a 17-year high, but the dollar was declining before the release. I think the best explanation for the dollar weakness is the sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields.           

10-year bond yields dropped 7 basis points on Wednesday, to reverse almost 50% of the gains from mid-December towards last week, where yields broke above 2.5% for the first time since March 2017.

Despite appetite for risk sending Asian equities to record highs on Thursday, the safe haven Yen is outperforming its major currency peers. USDJPY dipped below 113 for the first time in six trading days after the release of Bank of Japan meeting minutes.  Some members are considering tightening monetary policy, if the economy continues to improve next year. This would be a significant shift in strategy for a Central Bank thought to be the last to exit the unconventional stimulus packages.  However, I don’t think the BoJ will move anytime soon due to subdued inflation; but, given the lack of liquidity, moves in currency markets may be exaggerated.

Commodity currencies are also enjoying a decent upside, after copper prices rallied to their highest level in almost four years.Oil prices remained close to a two and a half year high, and gold hit a one- month high. Considering that no Tier One economic reports will be released, the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie will continue to follow commodity prices direction.



More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)