Portal Komuniti Informasi Malaysia Terkini
BTCClicks.com Banner
Hello There, Guest! Register Login with Facebook

Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Daily Market Analysis By ForexTime ( FXTM )
#11
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US woes cause dollar bears to strike


[Image: RVetqCM.jpg]


It's been a perfect storm for the USD bears today as the USD plummeted against major pairs and commodities. For some time the USD has been quite weak and major pairs have capitalised on it when possible, however there has been a major weather event recently with Hurricane Harvey causing major flooding and causing a large amount of damage, and also another storm likely to hit and impact Florida. Couple to this the huge backlog of political work that needs to be done by the end of the month and you can see why markets are not happy with the current US situation. The major bearish sign though was the durable goods orders m/m which fell to -6.8% (-2.9% exp) which gave the dollar bears another chance to dump the USD.

[Image: nzdusddaily_36.png?itok=PUa4bupu]

No where was this felt more than the commodity currencies which surged higher on the back of the USD weakness. After recent bearish behaviour after the last few months the NZDUSD has surged higher today on the back of the weaker USD, and also positive Australian outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The push upwards today was very strong and cracked through the trend line before hitting resistance around the 20 day moving average. The bears have since pushed it back down but the new daily candle is searching to find weakness and it may find it with the current weak USD. I'm not sure how much further it can however rise, but resistance at 0.7323 and 0.7400 are likely to be strong targets for traders in the market. If we do see a fall back down the charts and the trend continuing then I would expect to see support at 0.7219 and 0.7157 be the focus.

Oil has surged today on the back of a number of key things. Firstly there are talks that Saudi Arabia and Russia are looking to extend further rate cuts. Additionally, the USD has been somewhat weaker and this always leads to a rise in the value of oil in the short term. Further adding to this is the fact that refineries in the US are starting to come back into full swing, and there demand for oil products will increase to make up for lost ground - if they're not already at full capacity. US oil inventory data would normally be the next thing also to focus on for oil traders but due to the US public holiday it's going to be a day later than normal.

[Image: crudedaily_33.png?itok=rQmHSBt4]

Technical traders will be focused on the failure of oil to break through resistance today at 48.82. For some time now there has been a bearish expectation for the market and it had been trending lower, but the last few days have seen jumps and expectations are the bulls might be looking to take control again. Certainly oil is big on trending, but each wave has been weaker. If the market fails to break and hold above 48.82 then I would expect it to swing lower to 46.50 and 45.47.


More Info Here


[Image: qvhBBMi.jpg]
Reply
Thanks given by:
#12
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

USD beats monday blues



[Image: X9FpJN7.jpg]


The dollar has begun a strong rally on the charts and US markets are surprisingly upbeat, most likely on the bipartisan actions that have occurred in the US, with Trump working with the democrats to push through debt ceiling reform and provide aid for Harvey and Hurricane Irma as it hits Florida. This US resolve has been somewhat missing over the previous month, with many struggles and failures for the Trump administration as well as added heat from the investigation into Russia and its influence in the recent US elections. Some economic information also had a boost with consumer credit lifting positively to 18.5B (15B exp) showing that the consumption based economy which is the United States is still going ahead full steam and there may be plenty more left in the tank.

With all the turmoil recently for the USD the one winner may in fact be the S&P 500, which has been lifting on speculation that the FED will not lift interest rates in December as many had been expecting. The mindset is that the hurricanes will have an impact on the economy, and force the FED to act more dovish in the later part of the year. So with the FED being dovish the S&P 500 is looking to close at record highs and the market is poised to continue its bullish run against all odds.

[Image: sp500mdaily_8.png?itok=gT9aviLY]

With the S&P climbing through resistance at 2484 and closing above the market is looking quite bullish an extension up to the magic 2500 mark looks on the cards. Anything above the 2500 mark would most likely be aiming for the next psychological level at 2524. In the event we did see a strong pull back on the chart my focus would be on 2484 and 2459 with the 100 day moving average being the real test if the markets start to become bearish.

The other key pair which has certainly been in the headlights today has been the cable which saw some stiff resistance at 1.3224. Now the UK economy has been undergoing a tough time with the uncertainty around Brexit and this has not been helped by comments from the Euro-zone which have tried to undermine the position of the British. But for the most part it has been dollar weakness which has enable the pound to climb so high.  A reversal of this position could certainly be in the works after failing to climb any higher at 1.3224.

[Image: gbpusddaily_333.png?itok=umJyt9Ub]

Expectations are now building that we could see the bears taken a decent swipe as the market swings lower. I would certainly be aware of the 20 day moving average which does have a habit of providing support. Traders are likely to target the key area of 1.3000 which is a psychological level, but also a strong area of support and could be the land in the sand for the bulls to look to regain control - it certainly has a lot to play for around this level given the recent history.


More Info Here


[Image: mIFePYf.jpg]
Reply
Thanks given by:
#13
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Global tensions set to boost metals



[Image: VIS4mco.jpg]


North Korea is on the move again when it comes to upsetting the western world, as reports are now surfacing that they will test launch another ICBM and potentially point it towards pacific targets. With the latest rounds of sanctions having little to no effect, it seems likely that the US may rattle its sabre once more at North Korea with further tough talk, this could in turn have a flow on effect in the markets which will look to hedge on any escalation risk. Albeit at the last possible moment if traders can help it, but so far the bounce off these events has been substantial. One of the key winners of such trades is indeed precious metals, which speculators enjoy to the fullest when it comes to hedging against risk. While traditionally a hedge against inflation, it has since become the go to move for traders look to hedge against political events as well.


[Image: xagusddaily_24.png?itok=DavOVkgx]


Silver for me is the key metal I will be watching for a number of reasons. Firstly it's a little more robust technically than gold, and secondly it seems to be less likely to spike wildly on big movements but instead take a direction and go with it. Also for silver traders support was recently tested at 17.696 and the market quickly pushed back on the occasion. So far the bulls are trying to hold and are holding out on a weaker USD and further political upheaval. In the event it does slide further the next level can be found at around 17.352, how ever, the 20 day moving average should also be treated as dynamic support in this instance as well. On the upside it's clear to see that resistance can be found at 18.214 and 18.607, beyond these levels might be quite hard as silver does start to struggle above the 20 dollar mark, but any massive unrest could certainly send it flying higher.

If you're looking for further excitement in your trading day then the Australian dollar is set to swing low or high depending on your views of the current employment data due out shortly. The Australian labour market has been full of surprises recently, and many Australians are expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to perk up more if the labour market continues to expand at the present pace. Today's reading is expected to come in at 20K, but the previous reading of 27.9K is what the market may be hungering for here. Certainly any movements in the participation rate will also be closely watched as well.


[Image: audusddaily_42.png?itok=Y1ErkCyi]



At present the AUDUSD has slipped back under the 80 cent market and is trending lower on the stronger USD. Resistance can be found at 0.8000 and 0.8110 with the 80 cent market likely to break on positive employment data. In the event we see weaker than expected data then I would expect the AUD to plunge sharply down to support at 0.7901 and potentially 0.7821 in the coming weeks.



More Info Here

[Image: qvhBBMi.jpg]
Reply
Thanks given by:
#14
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

RBA minutes offer guidance on economy



[Image: gV7A63l.jpg]


The Australian economy has hit the spotlights as the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes are out. As usual it's quick to point the finger at the Australian dollar as being a potential catalyst of pain for the prospect of further expansion in the economy, namely inflation. The feeling is that the weaker USD is likely to be a temporary thing and that there is potential for the AUD to sink lower in the long run. Generally speaking, central banks have a poor track record of managing currency expectations on these sort of subjects, given they can't control markets at all. Also to add to it all China expectations continue to increase and the mining sector has the potential to improve further in the long run in the wake of weaker prices. For me this seems likely that the Australian economy will improve, but for now the RBA is certainly not pushing for a rate rise - even as the labour market picks up.

[Image: audusddaily_43.png?itok=3_L1Sq4_]

The AUDUSD has been a mover in recent weeks and the higher high it recently achieved was a very bullish sign. However, the weaker USD has been the main driver for any commodity currency rises. With the AUD trending lower at present it seems the bears are in control, even though we've had more bullish waves. Support at 0.7901 is likely to be a key moment to see if the bears either take control or the bulls surge back into the market. If we do see a push through then 0.7821 is likely to be the next level lower. If the AUDUSD does surge back higher then resistance at the 0.8006 is likely to be the main level with a weaker level at 0.8110, but it's unlikely to test these levels in a hurry.

NZD traders should be aware that the NZD is in for a bumpy ride ahead of this Saturday and the NZD might not be the same after the weekend. What I am speaking about it is political elections, and the ramifications for the market as a result. Currently it's a two horse race for two major parties to potentially govern, however, one is left wing and one is right wing. So the market could drop suddenly or spike suddenly depending on polls in the lead up to the election. Either way despite all the market movements it's one to be careful of but also creates strong opportunities for fundamental speculators.

[Image: nzdusddaily_37.png?itok=8CZ437Gt]

For the NZDUSD it's currently looking like it may be stuck in a ranging pattern and playing of key levels. Resistance levels can be found at 0.7322 and 0.7400 and I would expect these to be tested if the current government is maintained. Support levels, on the other hand, can be found at 0.7219 and 0.7157 - these are likely to be tested in the build up to the election as traders get a bit spooked and could be smashed if a left wing government is elected at present. Either way strong levels and political uncertainty can give traders great opportunities for targeting.


More Info Here

[Image: qvhBBMi.jpg]
Reply
Thanks given by:
#15
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Trade balance data weighs on NZD this week


[Image: yfbcu65a67ub6av2zqde4teqj.jpg]


The New Zealand has been the weakest trade for Monday, but that was in part to markets holding off on economic data coming out the following morning. We now know why as trade balance data was much worse than expected at -1.24B (NZD) and exports dipped to 3.69B (4.63B prev). This will certainly raise eye brows for NZD traders but also the Reserve Bank of New Zealand who always takes a very careful approach when dealing with trade balance data. Expectations are now that the RBNZ may in fact look to hold off further rate rises if we see further weakness, especially in the labour market. A drop in the NZDUSD however may assist the RBNZ at the end of the day as it feels that at present it is overvalued when sitting in the 70 cent range and would prefer something in the low 60s; at a more traditional trade weighted value.


[Image: nzdusddaily_38.png?itok=fcl6i-fA]


For the NZDUSD bulls the time may be up on the good run. It has been the case of a weaker USD helping drive commodity currencies higher and the NZD has benefited greatly accordingly. However, dollar bears have eased off and as a result the weakness in the NZD is starting to show. Thus far the 20 day moving average has acted as dynamic support for movements lower on the daily chart, but I feel it can't slow it much further. Support levels from a price standpoint can be found at 0.7219 and 0.7157; these levels are like to come under stress and a further extension below 0.7157 would pave the way for more aggressive bearish action. In the event that markets turned upwards I would be surprised but expect resistance to be found accordingly at 0.7323 and 0.7400, with 0.7400 likely to be the strongest resistance level at present in the market. Traders, however should also be aware that the RBNZ rate decision is due out Wednesday early morning GMT time and will carry some weight with the market, but it's extremely unlikely the rates will move at this time - the statement will be of the biggest impact.

Oil has jumped up the charts in an unprecedented move for a Monday trading day. The jump to resistance at 52.10 is a clear sign that oil has finally crossing back into positive territory. This should come as no surprise as demand has increased globally and the production cuts from OPEC are helping to reduce the glut that plagued the market over the last two years.


[Image: crudedaily_35.png?itok=ozEbiiiY]


For traders looking to fade the bulls on this trade the next levels to target are 54.04 and 55.12 with the 55.12 zone likely to be a very strong candidate for bears to push the market or traders to look to take profit. It would be unexpected to see sharp falls from the current position unless we saw some major dollar strengthening. However, it seems to be a mixed bag for the dollar at present. 



More Info Here

[Image: qvhBBMi.jpg]
Reply
Thanks given by:
#16
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Brexit steals spotlight in late trading


[Image: st5wcg6yf6y3fxl353s8cp45s.jpg]


The pound has been the strongest currency today on the back of positive Brexit news that the UK government is looking like it may have it under control. The Prime Minister of the UK, Theresa May spoke positively to the house of commons today about talks in private with the EU and that they were much better than what the public realised. She was quick to show strength around negotiating the exit from the EU and also retaining access to the single market. It will be interesting to see what the EU has to say on this however, as they've said it will take a miracle to get all of this over the line. Especially with the major point of freedom of movement being the elephant in the room that seems to cause Brexit to trip up constantly. Further news will certainly develop during the course of the week, but I can't see the EU backing down and being positive around talks anytime soon, especially as they seem to have a lot of leverage in this negotiation.

[Image: gbpusddaily_351.png?itok=gFGEuSpW]

Looking at the charts and it's clear to see the GBPUSD bounced sharply on the 100 day moving average, showing that there is very much the case for bulls to stay in this market. With the prospect of a Bank of England rate rise in the near future there are positive signs for the pound, but that won't be an event till next month. Resistance levels higher are looking like key targets at 1.3219 and 1.3339 at this stage, and I would expect the potential for further extensions higher as well if the BoE talks about the rate rise prospects more so. If the market does slip lower I would watch the 100 day moving average and also the bullish trend line which has been in play for some time. This is a key area for the bulls to take advantage, when looking to tackle the bears.

The Euro has also been an interesting one as well as the EURGBP continues to be a bit of a battle between the two Brexit sides, and it certainly has clawed back a lot of ground over the past year of all this turmoil. After dropping sharply the Euro has managed to grab back some ground from the Pound but it looks unlikely to continue unless the UK can make real promise on its Brexit talk.

[Image: eurgbpdaily_32.png?itok=UPcl2Mhi]

At present the EURGBP came under selling pressure today, but support at 0.8918 showed that many traders still believe the Euro is going to be the winner in the long run. The 100 day moving average also added to the bulls favour as well with the support level. Expectations are that if the Euro-zone shows a strong hand then it could lift higher to 0.9038 and further levels at 0.9136. I would expect that it could potentially go higher, but we could see some back and forth in the mean time so it's hard to say just yet.


More Info Here

Reply
Thanks given by:
#17
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Catalan back down sends EUR higher


[Image: 2ht87ewg5z0kuvevyqpx0ngrm.jpg]


The Euro has rallied in later trading after waiting on to hear the speech from Puigdemont in the Catalan parliament in Spain. There had been concern from Euro-zone members that Puigdemont the president of the Catalan province may use the speech to declare independence from Spain which would have cause some major issues. However, he never went on to declare independence, but instead suspended the idea under the guise of further talks with Madrid. In all reality this is likely to end badly for Puigdemont in the long run as Spain is now holding a special cabinet meeting on Wednesday in order to deal with the issue. What is certainly clear though is that no EU leaders support such a move and after today's speech the Euro has rallied sharply on the belief that nothing more will come of this in the long run which could disrupt the Euro-zone project.

[Image: eurusddaily_199.png?itok=UwRM222q]

For the EURUSD traders tomorrow I expect they will be expecting a very strong response from Spain and I would expect the bulls to take full advantage of the situation to push the Euro higher. The EURUSD failed today to gain further ground, after touching resistance around 1.1814, as it waits on the Spanish government response. Further potential extensions are likely to target key levels at 1.1915 and 1.2000 in the long run. If the Spanish government is seen to be weak then I would expect support levels at 1.1719 and 1.1621 to come back into the fray, as the bears look to capitalise on the weakness. It's also worth paying attention to the 20 day moving average, but I expect that the market will be focused on fundamentals instead of technical's tomorrow given all that is happening in Spain.

Across the world in New Zealand and the  major political parties are currently going through negotiations with minor political parties in order to form a government after the most recent election. It's a case of demands from the minor parties as they hold the balance of power, and the uncertainty (much like Spain) has been weighing on the currency in the face of an active market. You only have to look at the AUDUSD which normally is a close mirror to the NZDUSD to see the deviation caused by political instability. So far the market is wondering which side the minor parties will go with, so much so that the NZD has not moved but this Thursday is meant to be an indicator of how things will go.

[Image: nzdusddaily_43.png?itok=O9tzRbKo]

For the NZDUSD traders, the focus is on support at 0.7054 which is currently holding up further drops. The expectation is that a left-wing leading party gets into power then we could see further NZDUSD drops into the 60 cent range. With support levels at 0.6983 and 0.6921 likely to come under pressure. If we see a right-wing party come into power (which was the previous government) then the market will likely jump and put pressure on resistance levels at 0.7166 and 0.7219 respectively. 



More Info Here


[Image: qvhBBMi.jpg]
Reply
Thanks given by:
#18
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

It is all about inflation


[Image: shutterstock_4442066059e8eb27ac62f123a.jpg]


When the Federal Reserve met on 19-20 September, it announced the start of winding down the $4.5billion balance sheet and maintained plans for a third-rate hike in 2017. The statement reflected confidence in the economic activity particularly the pickup in household spending and growth in business investments.  Despite the storms Harvey and Irma, the central bank was still confident the U.S. economy would keep its momentum, and Janet Yellen sounded more hawkish than markets anticipated. This was all good news for the U.S. dollar which rallied for three weeks after the meeting, appreciating 2.3% against a basket of currencies.

The primary concern was low inflation. Fed chair Janet Yellen described it as something of a "mystery." When an institute which employs over 300 Ph.D. economists still doesn’t know whether low inflation is persistent or transitory, the risk of tightening monetary policy further might be a huge policy mistake if inflation did not return to normal levels. The Phillips Curve Model which theorizes that there should be a strong inverse relationship between unemployment and price inflation is apparently not working, and probably it is time for the Fed to drop this theory and find new models.

Yesterday’s Fed minutes reflected such worries.  Several members insisted that the decision of raising rates for the third time in 2017 should depend on economic data which increase their confidence that inflation would move towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The dollar bulls did not like the statement despite expectations of a December rate hike remained above 80% according to CME’s Fedwatch Tool. The dollar index continued to fall on Thursday for the fifth day in a row, with overall declines of 1.5% from Oct-6 highs.

Given that inflation has become the most important economic metric impacting the dollar’s direction, today’s PPI and more importantly tomorrow’s CPI should be watched very closely. Any upside surprise would curb the dollar’s fall; however, a disappointing figure would be an excuse to keep dragging the USD lower.

The Euro performed very well, climbing to the highest level in more than two weeks at 1.1878. After Carles Puigdemont suspended the process of Catalonia's independence, Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has given him five days to say whether or not he has declared independence. Depending on the response, the government in Madrid could impose direct rule on Catalonia. I think the overall crisis in Spain is still underpriced, and if no agreement is reached in the next couple of days the stability of the Eurozone as a whole would be at risk. Although economic fundamentals continue to support a stronger Euro, politics will play a significant role as to where the Euro heads next. ECB’s Mario Draghi will participate today in the annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF in Washington. Any new hint provided will move the single currency.

Despite no advances made in the Brexit negotiations, Sterling continued to trade higher against the dollar for the fourth consecutive day. Although Brexit will keep weighing on Sterling on the longer run, monetary policies seem to be the major driver for now. Expectations of BoE raising rates in the final quarter of 2017 remained high, thus narrowing monetary policy divergence with the Federal Reserve. I think in the next couple of days, Sterling will be driven by economic data rather than Brexit negotiations.


More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:
#19
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

NZ inflation beats expectations


[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]


It's been a strong showing for CPI data released moments ago for the New Zealand economy. The lift to 0.5% q/q (exp 0.4%) is a strong jump and lifts y/y on inflation to 1.8% (exp 1.7%), something that is above the current Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecasts. So it certainly adds weight to the possibility of future rate rises if this can be sustained. However, there has been a lot of uncertainty creeping into the NZ economy as of late, as the election talks for the government have still not finished and markets are never a fan of uncertainty. The bigger picture though, may be the diary auction which has expectations that it could be a repeat of last week and drop. This would in turn cause disruption in the NZ economy which is heavily reliant on the dairy market and the income it generates through Fonterra. So with that, traders will be watching for the volatility and wondering if we can see a repeat of last week where the NZD was one of the most volatility currencies.

[Image: nzdusddaily_45.png?itok=s-TiXost]

For me the NZDUSD continues to be bullish in the short term as the USD fails to strengthen at present. After touching support today at 0.7166 it has bounced higher and is looking to target the key level of resistance at 0.7219, further extensions in the short term could go higher to 0.7262 as well. The 200 day moving average is also acting as strong support in the market and helping to stop any bearish movements lending further weight to the bullish movements higher. However, if we did see a move lower on the charts the bulls are likely to target support levels at 0.7130 and 0.7054. With it being very unlikely that we could see further movements below the 70 cent market with a weak USD at present.

Oil has for some time been one of the bullish markets trading have been playing, and it certainly is looking set for further big moves as it holds up at strong resistance at 52.10. OPEC has called its programme a success thus far when it comes to stabilising oil prices and is looking to further extend those cuts in the interim to support current oil prices. It would be unlikely they would stop the current progress they've made given the success they've had. Nevertheless, the US continues to pump more oil than ever which does dampen the market and prospects of going higher.

[Image: crudedaily_38.png?itok=lU9QvvwG]

On the charts oil continues to be bullish, but it's struggling at resistance at 52.10, which continues to stop further movement higher. The bears are strong around this level as they've protected it before and are looking to do so again. If we did see a break out higher then resistance at 53.70 would be the next target. However, if oil did drop on the chart then I would expect support at 50.21 and 48.73 in the long run.


More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:
#20
Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

AUD traders wait for CPI figures



[Image: shutterstock_129030494_19.jpg]


The Australian dollar has taken a beating in recent trading days, as the selling in it was mainly a result of the recent NZ election which dragged on the AUDUSD. This may come as a surprise, but there is some correlation between the two when it comes to their pairing with the USD. However, this selling has now stopped and markets are focused on the CPI data due out in coming days, which will provide some strong direction. The current expectation is a big rise in CPI data from 0.2% q/q to 0.8% q/q, which would bring inflation in that 2% target. Going further above the 2% target we can expect this to raise the attention of fixed rate markets who will be looking to see if this gives ammunition to the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift rates. The economy does seem to be bouncing back so this catalyst could lead to the bulls rushing back into the AUDUSD, as it continues to look stable and lack any political risk when compared to NZ at present - which has a degree.


[Image: audusddaily_45.png?itok=Fo7TwPCP]


With all this in mind where to for the AUDUSD. Well there are two ways to look at it and a weaker USD is not the answer here. If we do see a weaker CPI result then I could see the AUDUSD whacked and pushed lower to support at  0.7729, but it shouldn't have a massive impact. On the upside if we saw a CPI reading that beat expectations and markets felt it might be sustained then I could see resistance at 07900 targeted, with long term upside potential of hitting further resistance levels at 0.8000. Either way you look at it there is potential for bigger movements in the AUDUSD and potentially the AUDNZD as well, but CPI figures will have a big impact on market sentiment for the rest of the week.

Shinzo Abe got what he wanted as he swept back into power after this weekend's elections and the USDJPY was quick to respond by losing some ground on the Monday open, as Yen bulls appeared in the market. The continuation of Abenomics will be interesting, it has been one of the greatest economic experiments of its time. The reality though is that it has not really caused the expected result and may have created more problems. Markets however are expecting that the Bank of Japan governor will be replaced and another more hawkish governor could be brought in to create further change from a monetary policy point of view.


[Image: usdjpydaily_84.png?itok=Fdjm38YA]


For the USDJPY traders it's a good time to be bullish, but also realise that the USDJPY does like big levels and to move sideways from time to time as well. Resistance at 114.258 thus far has been a hard ask for the market and I am expecting to see a real test here. If we can see a push through then further extensions to 115.322 are likely to be on the cards here. But USD strength will also need to hold up and it has suffered recently.



More Info Here
Reply
Thanks given by:


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)