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A simple way to value a stock: GENM
#1
Sharing: A simple way to value a stock: GENM
 
First, get GENM average price before the sharp fall
around RM4.60 to RM5.20, average RM4.90

 
Second, what is the valuation (PE ratio) before the sharp fall
1) This year able to deliver total RM1.5b net profit, Earning Per Share (EPS) is RM0.25
2) Share price 4.90 divide EPS RM0.25, PE ratio = 19x

 
Third, what is the expected growth rate in GENM due to the reopen of theme park to attract more crowds
1) Apply a 10% improvement in net profit
2) RM1.5 bil + 10% = RM1.65 bil (profit assumption before tax impact)

 
Forth, what is the expected impact from the new taxes
Moody (investor advisor) say the potential impact is around RM650 mil.

 
Fifth, new profit assumption after tax impact
Next year profit assumption RM1.65 bil minus new taxes impact RM650 mil = RM1 billion
 
Sixth, new target price
1) RM1 bil translate into EPS 0.17
2) EPS 0.17 x PE ratio 19x = Target Price RM3.23

 
Personally view, GENM may happen a mild rebound when price nearby RM3.45.
Fundamentally, its value is at around RM3.23


分享评估股票的简单方法:GENM
 
第一,在急剧下跌之前GENM的平均价格
4.60RM5.20,平均RM4.90
 
第二,大幅下跌前的估值(本益比)是多少
1)今年净利润总额为15亿令吉,每股盈利(EPS)为RM0.25
2)股价4.90除以每股盈利RM0.25,本益比 = 19x
 
第三,由于重新开放主题公园以吸引更多人群,GENM的预期增长率是多少
1)净利润提高10
2RM15亿令吉 + 10= RM16.5 亿令吉(税前影响的盈利假设)
 
第四,新税收的预期影响是多少
穆迪(投资顾问)表示潜在影响约为6.5亿令吉。
 
第五,税后影响的新盈利假设
明年的利润假设为16.5亿令吉减去新税影响的6.5亿令吉= 10亿令吉
 
第六,新目标价
110亿令吉相等于每股盈利RM0.17
2)每股盈利 0.17 乘于本益比19 = 目标价RM3.23

个人认为,当价格接近RM3.45时,GENM可能会出现个暂时反弹。
基本面而言,它的价值约为RM3.23
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#2
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#3
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#4
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